Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Dodgers have signed Juan Uribe to a 3-year, $21 million contract.
Man that stinks.
Alright, now that I got that out of my system, let’s get down to real analysis. To repeat a tweet from Andrew Baggarly, I can’t blame the Giants for not matching the Dodgers’ offer, and I can’t blame Uribe for taking it. Three years was too much for me, even though $7mil per is not outlandish. I would have been ok with a Renteria-esque 2 yr/$9mil deal, but apparently Uribe wanted that third year. I simply cannot endorse the third year based on his stats this season. As I detailed last post, Uribe’s LD% is declining, his FB% is increasing, he’s had leg issues the entire time he’s been with the Giants, and much of his value last season was based on a career-high walk percentage coupled with a strikeout percentage that was his lowest since 2005. The Bill James 2011 projection has him for a .253/.307/.434 line next year. Those are good numbers for a shortstop, and would make him well worth his contract. But I just don’t see those numbers carrying for three years.
The Giants’ other options are thin. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is already off the market, as the Twins won the right to negotiate with him for his services. If those two sides come to a deal, there’s an off chance J.J. Hardy will become available. As I detailed last time, Hardy projects for a .331 wOBA next year, which coupled with an excellent glove makes him a 3.5 WAR player. If he could be had in a trade for, say, a B- prospect or a couple of C’s (think Thomas Neal or Charlie Culberson) then I say pull the trigger. He’ll probably cost around $7mil this season, and is a free agent after next season.
The remaining free-agents don’t leave much to be desired either. Miguel Tejada is available, but he doesn’t exactly inspire delusions of grandeur. He has the range of the Venus de Milo at short, so much so that he played over 800 innings at third this year for two teams. He wasn’t much better there, scoring a -9.9 UZR/150. In his last three seasons at short (3222 innings) he’s cost -2.3 runs, and only figures to get worse.
On the plus side, he does offer the flexibility of both positions, if Panda doesn’t get himself in gear. With the bat, he projects a .279/.324/.415 line, good for a .320 wOBA. Basically, he projects as an average bat and a below average glove. I can’t imagine Miggy getting more than a one-year contract anywhere, probably in the $5-$7mil range.
The Giants could offer a contract to Edgar Renteria again. Last year, he hit .276/.332/.374 in 72 games, and the Bill James projections have him doing essentially that again (.274/.333/.381) in 200 more plate appearances. With the glove, DRS had him at -2 runs last year, while UZR had him at +6.5 UZR/150. I would imagine, at the age of 33 with bad hamstrings already that he can be average at best at shortstop. I could see Renteria, over a full season, being worth about 1.5-2 WAR: league average. He will probably be available for 1yr/$5mil.
Of course, I’ve avoided the elephant in the room thus far: Derek Jeter. Let me preface this paragraph by saying that I don’t anticipate, in a million years, the Yankees and Jeter not getting a deal done. But as we stand now, the two sides seem to be pretty far apart. Jeter wants 4-5 years, somewhere in the $23mil per range. The Yankees have offered 3 years, $15 mil per. Should the two sides not make much movement, can the Giants move in there with a 4 year/$19mil per deal and snap Jeter up? More importantly, should they?
In a word, no. Jeter is coming off a career-worst year at the plate, hitting .270/.340/.370 and leading the majors in outs made. Adjusting for a move to the inferior league and a minor bounce-back, one can anticipate a line of about .295/.365/.410 next season, which would be a .344 wOBA. Jeter scored right with his career average in UZR/150 last season, at -5.1. Add it all together, and you’re looking at something like 3.5-4 WAR. That’s pretty close to $19mil in value, but it would be ridiculous to assume he could maintain that value through his age 41 season. I see the probability of the Giants getting Rowanded with this deal if they decide to stick their noses in this mess.
The farm system doesn’t have much promise either. As mentioned last time, the three guys that got the most playing time at SS in Fresno were Ryan Rohlinger, Manny Burriss, and Angel Berroa.* Burriss already has 499 PA’s in the majors, with a line of .264/.329/.302. Ouch. He’s below average defensively, and probably is better as a second baseman. Essentially, Burriss is the definition of replacement level.
*Not only did Berroa play 26 games at short, but Tony Pena Jr. played 4 games. I’m not sure when Fresno became a graveyard for former Royals shortstops, but I don’t like it one bit.
Rohlinger is a different story. At 27 next season, he’s not young, but he hit well in half a season with Fresno last year. His line there stood at .311/.392/.477, which, according to minorleaguesplits.com, translates to a .266/.332/.392 line in San Francisco. Think Travis Ishikawa with the bat, playing shortstop. He projects as a slightly below average fielder in the majors, especially as a shortstop. Rohlinger isn’t ideal, but he’s better than replacement level and at the major league minimum, the Giants really have nothing to lose.
I would recommend carrying Rohlinger on the 25-man roster and signing Renteria for a single year. Renteria offers a .320 wOBA bat, and if he gets injured (excuse me; when he gets injured), Rohlinger can step in and hit something like a .310 wOBA. Combined, they shouldn’t cost more than $6mil, and will offer 1.5-2 WAR.
Losing Uribe to the Dodgers hurts, but I think Colletti overpaid, and I think the Giants made the right call not matching the offer. Give Renteria something like 1 yr/$5-$7mil, have Rohlinger ready in the wings for when Renteria goes down, and save some money and maintain flexibility for the future.
Oh, also, avoid Derek Jeter at all costs. Come on Sabean, I know you want to, but don’t do it. Please. For all of us.
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