Quick programming note: I have begun a blog titled Slash and Dash with a few college friends of mine. On it, I will be writing about MLB and, when the mood strikes me, perhaps some college football and basketball. Not to fear, I will still be posting my Giants-related thoughts here. Without further ado, here are my top-20 prospects for 2011: the position players.
Now that the regular season is over, there are only two things to do: argue about which free agents to sign, and make prospect lists. I’ll get to the former in a few days, but here’s my shot at the latter. As you may recall, I did a top-20 position prospects last winter, with accompanying June update. This winter, we now feature pitchers! Last year I didn’t rank pitchers because I felt much less comfortable with the scouting side of prospecting, but a year down the line I feel comfortable enough to take a shot.
One note: I separated my prospect lists between pitchers and position players, because I feel like it’s a fairer way to evaluate them.
Two players who appeared on my list last year are now ineligible: Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. Belt had an up and down year, quite literally: after beginning the season as the starting first baseman, he was sent down in May for poor performance. He was brought back up in the beginning of June, before an injury sidelined him for a month. He returned from the injury in Fresno, and then was called up for the third and final time in August. All told, he got 212 plate appearances in Fresno and 160 in San Francisco. Crawford was brought up in response to the anemic play of Miguel Tejada and the injury to Mike Fontenot, and performed about as well as could be expected: great glove, awful bat. He’s headed to the Arizona Fall League to work on his hitting, and should compete for the starting job next spring.
On to the list:
20. Roger Kieschnick, OF (last year: 19)
Kieschnick hit .255/.307/.429 as a 24-year-old in double-A. He’s old for his level, but lost most of last season with a back injury. The injury sapped his power, which really started to show up at the end of the season. The most worrisome thing for me is his K/BB ratio at 121/34. A 7% BB-rate is ok, but a 24% K-rate is pretty damning. We’ll see him in Fresno next year, I imagine, and a September call-up isn’t out of the question. Time is running out for him, however.
19. Ryan Cavan, 2B (last year: 17)
Cavan hit .270/.352/.435 in high-A as a 24-year-old. He’s very old for his level, and suffered from the logjam at second base in the Giants’ system. He walks at an 11% rate, strikes out in only 16% of his plate appearances, and his .165 ISO isn’t terrible for a second baseman. Still, that line is good for only a 102 wRC+ in the hitting atmosphere of the California League, and for an average second baseman, that’s not great. We’ll see how he does in double-A next year.
18. Alberto Robles, INF (last year: NR)
Robles is an infielder for the Dominican Summer League Giants affiliate. He hit .344/.459/.399 in 230 plate appearances as a 20-year-old. He’s a tad old, but in two seasons in the DSL he had walk rates of 10.5% and 13.9%. He barely strikes out, and while he doesn’t hit for much power, he could definitely be a useful player in the majors. At 5’ 11”, 155 lbs., he also has a lot of room to fill out. He’s on the top of my sleepers list.
17. Cristian Paulino, 2B (last year: NR)
Paulino got the call-up to the Arizona Rookie League this year, and performed very well: .277/.379/.435 in 135 plate appearances, 16 walks against 17 strikeouts and 10 steals to only 1 CS. He’s only 19 years old, so he’s a tad young for the league, and he’s a pretty exciting prospect to keep an eye on. We’ll see if he gets the promotion to Salem-Keizer next year, but a 122 wRC+ seems to indicate that he’s ready.
16. Jesus Galindo, CF (last year: NR)
After two years in the DSL, Galindo got an aggressive promotion all the way to low-A Salem Keizer this year. As a 20-year-old, he performed admirably: .276/.353/.364, good for a 122 wRC+. A pretty severe drop in walk rate between 2010 and 2011 is slight cause for concern, and Galindo will be a guy to keep an eye on in full-season ball next year.
15. Brett Krill, RF (last year: NR)
Krill, drafted in the 25th round in 2010, played his first professional season in 2011, and the results were impressive: 125 wRC+, a triple slash line of .304/.350/.488, a .184 ISO. But there’s bad news too: he’s already 22, and his K/BB ratio was 44/14. He should get the promotion to full season ball next year, and we’ll see if this season was an age-related mirage, or if Krill’s the real deal.
14. Shawn Payne, OF (last year: NR)
Payne was drafted in the 35th round this year by the Giants, assigned to low-A Salem Keizer, and promptly hit .306/.431/.394 in 195 plate appearances, good for a 147 wRC+. Payne’s a deep sleeper in this system, and the hesitation is warranted: he’s already 21, and he’s showing very little power. But Payne could be a something like Emilio Bonifacio: good plate discipline, little power, decent defense. He’s a guy to watch next year, presumably in single-A Augusta.
13. Chuckie Jones, OF (last year: 4)
After an exciting debut season last year (132 wRC+ as a 17-year-old), Jones struggled mightily in his second professional season. At low-A Salem-Keizer he hit .218/.322/.315 in 146 plate appearances, good for a 84 wRC+. His walk rate stayed constant at 10%, but his strikeout rate to, at a frightening 32%. What scares me the most, however, was his drop in power, from a .182 ISO in 2010 to .097 this year. He may see a promotion to single-A Augusta next season, but I predict we’ll see him back in low-A. Jones has gone from top-flight prospect to interesting sleeper, so we’ll see how he does next year to turn it around.
12. Kelby Tomlinson, SS (last year: NR)
Tomlinson was the Giants’ 12th round pick this year out of Texas A&M. He was drafted as a good defensive shortstop with work to do with his bat, but he surprised everyone by hitting .357/.415/.543 in rookie ball. He was old for the league (age 21, he’s actually seven days younger than I am) but this result certainly was encouraging. He’ll hopefully move up to full season ball next year as the starter in Augusta, but we may see him in extended spring training before starting for Salem-Keizer instead.
11. Ricky Oropesa, 1B (last year: NR)
Oropesa was the Giants’ third round pick this year, and has yet to play a professional game. Oropesa is a one-tool prospect with out-of-this-world power. He slugged .710 in his final year in college, but also struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances. He profiles similarly to Chris Dominguez (who didn’t make this list). As a college draftee, I hope to see him in full-season ball to start the year next year.
10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B (last year: 9)
Gillaspie spent the season with Fresno, earning two separate call-ups to the big league club. He hit .297/.389/.453 (109 wRC+) in Fresno and .263/.333/.421 in 21 plate appearances with the Giants. He had basically the same season as media darling Brett Pill, except he walked a lot more, plays a more important defensive position, and is two years younger. I expect to see him as a bench guy next year.
9. Jarrett Parker, RF (last year: 14)
As a 22-year-old in high-A, he hit .253/.360/.397 in 571 plate appearances (102 wRC+). He walked 74 times, which is great, but he also struck out 144 times, which is not so great. Parker would be a very exciting prospect if only he hit for more power. As of right now, he looks like nothing better than a 4th or 5th outfielder in the Fred Lewis mold. A year in the challenging hitting environment of Richmond will do a lot to tell us what to expect.
8. Adam Duvall, 3B (last year: NR)
Duvall hit .258/.358/.527 in single-A Augusta (145 wRC+). He’s a bit old for single-A ball (age: 22) but he really raked this year, and I’m disappointed the Giants chose not to promote him midseason. His 22 home runs tied him for second most in the system with Tommy Joseph (Brett Pill hit 25). Next year we’ll see him manning the hot corner for San Jose, and in the California League hitting environment he could definitely start turning some heads.
7. Andrew Susac, C (last year: NR)
Susac was the Giants’ second round pick in 2011. He didn’t play an inning of professional ball this year, but I hope to see him in Augusta to start off the season. He was a draft eligible sophomore, so he’s younger than most college draftees. He’s got the defensive abilities to stay behind the dish, and to me he profiles as a Russell Martin-type player: low average, plus power, good defense. A broken hamate bone in his left hand caused him to drop to the Giants at slot 86, before the injury he was viewed as a first round talent.
6. Ehire Adrianza, SS (last year: 8)
Now we’re getting into the truly exciting prospects in the system. As a 21-year-old, Adrianza split time this season between Augusta and San Jose. He hit better than most expected him to, putting up a combined line of .273/.352/.434 in 430 plate appearances. He began the season injured, and then was sent to Augusta, where he struggled a bit while shaking off effects of the injury. After getting promoted to San Jose on June 29th, he hit to the tune of a 119 wRC+, including a .165 ISO. Were those numbers a California League-induced mirage? We’ll see next season, when Adrianza trades the friendly confines of San Jose for the hits-depressing environment in Richmond. He’s still on track to reach San Francisco in 2013.
5. Hector Sanchez, C (last year: 15)
Sanchez is the one prospect I’m most confused about. He started the year as an interesting sleeper prospect in high-A, then got promoted bizarrely straight to triple-A, then served as an emergency backstop in case either Whiteside or Stewart got injured, got 12 days of big league service time before September, then spent all of September with the big league club. He ended the season with 34 plate appearances in San Francisco, 168 in Fresno, and 228 in San Jose. His stats in San Jose are pretty impressive: .302/.338/.533, good for a 114 wRC+. His stats in Fresno are less impressive: only a 58 wRC+ while hitting .261/.315/.340. He was only 21 this season, and will probably start next year in triple-A Fresno.
4. Francisco Peguero, RF (last year: 2)
Peguero battled a knee injury to start the season, and as such only managed to get 372 plate appearances on the season. He managed a 109 wRC+ in double-A Richmond despite a 1.7% walk rate – yes, you read that right. Unless he starts walking some more, he’s going to struggle in the majors. His performance will depend almost entirely on his BABIP, and those “slap it on the ground and run like hell” guys tend not to last at the big league level. He’ll begin next year at triple-A, and I expect to see him in at least a September call-up.
3. Joe Panik, 2B/SS (last year: NR)
Panik was the Giants’ first round pick out of St. Johns. He signed quickly and immediately started the season with low-A Salem-Keizer, where he silenced all doubters with a .341/.401/.467 line, hitting for average, taking walks, and even exhibiting a bit of power. His K/BB ratio was downright fantastic at 25/28. He played every game at SS in Salem-Keizer, but I have him listed as a 2B/SS because the Giants see him as a likely 2B in the future. He’s headed to Scottsdale to play in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll most likely begin next year as the starting SS in San Jose.
2. Tommy Joseph, C (last year: 4)
Joseph hit .270/.317/.471 in San Jose in his age-19 season. The K/BB ratio isn’t particularly encouraging at 102/29, but he did hit 22 home runs and sported a .201 ISO, which is fantastic. As I noted in my late May revisit, Joseph had a .594 OPS through 183 plate appearances, and he really came on strong in the second half, posting a .921 OPS after the All-Star break. His strong second half, plus his young age, make him the second best hitting prospect in the system. The minor league evaluators at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America (you know, the professionals) both like Joseph as a sleeper top-100 candidate and a candidate for a national breakout next season. He should handle Richmond’s hitting environment just fine. His fielding had been a concern going into the season, but he appears to have what it takes to stay behind the dish, throwing out 37% of base runners this season.
1. Gary Brown, CF (last year: 5)
Gary Brown simply lit the Cal League on fire this year. The starting center fielder since Opening Day, he proceeded to hit .336/.407/.519, which comes out to a 140 wRC+. In addition, he stole 53 bases, played a great center field, and even drew 46 walks. His plate discipline was one of the question marks about him entering the season, and he proved doubters wrong with a K/BB ratio of 73/46, which is perfectly acceptable. He hit 34 doubles and 13 triples, and therefore hopefully won’t be hurt by the hitting environment in Richmond too much, which tends to seriously depress home runs. He will likely slot somewhere between 30 and 50 on the Baseball America top 100 list. Quite simply, he was stunning in his debut season, and all systems are go for him to be roaming the San Francisco outfield by 2013.
As a system, the Giants have a couple of top-flight positional prospects and a few interesting sleepers. This is not an elite system, by any means, but it is still in the rebuilding phase after the graduations of some elite talent in recent years. I would say it would slot somewhere between 15-20 amongst all franchises.
Them’s the hitters, pitchers to come Monday.
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