Trading Travis

The Giants aren’t expected to make too much of a splash the rest of the offseason, having lost Juan Uribe to the Dodgers (boooooo!) for 3yrs/$21mil, signing Miguel Tejada (just like I said they would) for 1yr/$6.5mil, and resigning Pat Burrell for 1yr/$1mil and Aubrey Huff for 2yrs/$22mil.

With that, the 25 man roster looks like this:

P: Affeldt, Bumgarner, Cain, Casilla, Lincecum, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, Runzler, Sanchez, Wilson, Zito

C: Posey, Whiteside

IF: Fontenot, Huff, Ishikawa, Sanchez, Sandoval, Tejada, DeRosa

OF: Burrell, Ross, Rowand, Schierholtz, Torres

Ah, except for one thing: that’s 26 names. There are a number of things the Giants could do here: not carry 12 pitchers, trade Ramirez/Runzler/Casilla for a backup catcher and release Whiteside, etc. Plus that list doesn’t even include uber-prospect Brandon Belt or blog favorite Ryan Rohlinger. It’s clear that the Giants need to drop a player or two from the active roster.

But who’s the most expendable Giant? Nate Schierholtz has an argument. A career defensive replacement, he’s got just a .306 wOBA in his career.* His career UZR/150 is +19.0, which is really quite fantastic. I think Schierholtz should stay in the role he assumed during the season, coming into the game in the 6th or 7th inning as a defensive replacement for Burrell. Hey, they call him Pat the Bat and not Pat the Glove for a reason.

*I realize that I use a lot of advanced statistics in my posts and I don’t explain what they mean. My apologies. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average, and it’s a stat similar to OPS, but it values on-base percentage higher because OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG. It’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the limit of my understanding. To read a fantastic description, here’s the brilliant Dave Cameron explaining it in greater detail.

Mike Fontenot has a case too, but there’s a reason the front office decided to tender him last week. He’s a valuable utility infielder who can play second, short, and third. There’s only one problem: he’s not any good at any of them. In only 152.2 innings in the field, mostly at second, he cost the Giants 2.9 runs. Sure, it’s a tine sample size, but that doesn’t make me feel better about it. He’ll be backing up the ever-fragile Freddy Sanchez at second, in addition to making some starts at short, should Miggy need a rest. He’ll stick around; there was no reason to tender him a contract if he wasn’t.

I think the most replaceable Giant has to be Travis Ishikawa. They have Huff to start and hold the position down until management decided Belt is ready, plus they already have guys on the roster in Sandoval and DeRosa who can play the position serviceably if Huff goes down with an injury or needs a day off.

Ish was drafted in the 21st round in 2002 and debuted in April, 2006. He came up for good in 2008, and in his career he boasts a batting line of .267/.324/.408 in 665 PA’s. There’s reason to believe he’s improving, too. His LineDrive% has increased every year of his career, and his HR/FB ratio looks to be due for some evening out.

Of course, Ish’s value has always come from his glove. UZR has him worth +13.5 runs per 150 games, which is quite good. In fact, that would qualify him as the best defensive 1B in the league, just ahead of Daric Barton.* Using Colin Wyers’ handy-dandy WAR calculator, Ishikawa projects to approximately a 1.2 WAR player over a full season, and that’s without factoring in any projected improvement. 1.2 WAR is worth roughly $6mil on the open market, and Ish is making basically league minimum. That’s a surplus value of over $5.5mil.

*Although third in the league is Aubrey Huff, at +6.7 runs. Maybe UZR does need a retooling after all.

Would Ish improve, given one extra year of development and the shot at a starting job somewhere else? Bill James thinks so, and I would tend to agree. James’ 2011 projections have Ish scoring a .336 wOBA next season, with a line of .268/.336/.432. I think that might be a tad optimistic, but based on Ish’s improving LD% and continuing to cut his K%, I could see him putting up something in the .325-.330 range. Couple that with his usual stellar defense and 650 PA’s from a complete season, and Ish projects somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 WAR, or worth between $8mil and $10mil.

So who are the Giants’ prospective trade partners? Ten teams had first baseman that registered less than 2.0 WAR last year: the Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Indians, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Rays, and the Blue Jays. Eliminating the two teams in division, that’s eight teams with a big need for a 1B worth league average. In addition, four teams had first basemen that cost them more than ten runs in the field: the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles. There's only one team that lands on both lists. Incredibly, the Orioles’ first baseman were both far below average at the bat (83 wRC+*) and in the field (-12.2 UZR).

*wRC+ is a version of wOBA, scaled with 100 exactly league average. Each point above 100 represents a 1% improvement, and each point below represents a 1% decline. So a 95 wRC+ is 5% below league average.

The Orioles don’t have a bad farm system either, ranking 11th in the Beyond the Box Score rankings before the season. There are several intriguing options for an Ishikawa trade. I imagine we could get a B- or a couple C prospects in return. The players don’t really much matter, perhaps someone like Matt Angle (OF, .260/.338/.303 at AAA, age 25) or Jerome Hoes (2B, .275/.372/.365 in A+, age 24 in January) would do.

The bottom line is that Travis Ishikawa could be a valuable member of a major league team if given the chance to start regularly. That opportunity isn’t going to come with the Giants, and I think both parties could gain from exploring the trade market.

It’s been a good run, Ish. It’s probably better for both of us if we just move on. It’s not you, it’s us.