At the beginning of the article, Rany explains why one can’t just use innings pitched as a measurement of how taxed a young pitcher’s arm is, and this is obvious. David Cone and Greg Maddux both threw a ton of innings as young pitchers, but only one of them retired early with arm problems. As Rany puts it, “it’s the pitches, stupid.”
After that bit of explanation, Rany introduces what he calls “Pitcher Abuse Points.” The scale went like this: pitches 1 through 100 received zero points, each pitch between 101 and 110 received one point, each pitch between 111 and 120 received two points, each pitch between 121 and 130 received three points, and so on. Intuitively, this makes sense: as the pitch count gets higher, each pitch is more tiring on the arm. Now, as we just said, this system isn’t going to work for everybody but it does tell us something.
Let’s start with the list of most abused arms in 1998. As Rany computes it, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens were the two most abused arms of the first half of 1998, with PAP per start scores of 38.2 and 36.2, respectively. There’s not a lot of surprise there, as they were their clubs ace, the stopper, the bullpen saver, the [insert workhorse cliché here]. The third name gives us something to work with: Bartolo Colon. He measures a 34.0 PAP per start score in 1998 at the age of 23.
Colon’s an interesting case. From 1998 to 2005, he pitched over 1,700 innings without major shoulder or elbow injury. It wasn’t until then that he started experiencing arm problems, as many 33-year-olds with almost 1,800 career IP do. In the 2005 playoffs, he suffered a torn rotator cuff that caused him to miss most of the 2006 season, and he’s been plagued with shoulder and elbow injuries since. However, the fact remains that he pitched effectively for eight seasons before experiencing arm problems, posting an ERA+ of 110 or higher each of those seasons except 2004. He even won a Cy Young in 2005.*
*It should be noted that that Cy Young Award was a complete sham, and perhaps the dying breath of the power of the win. Colon had a 3.48 ERA to go along with his 21 wins, which led the league. That was good for a 122 ERA+ - certainly excellent, but barely Cy Young-worthy. The award that year almost certainly should have gone to Johan Santana, who posted a 155 ERA+ in 231 innings, but only recorded 16 wins with a punchless Twins lineup supporting him.
Continuing our look at young pitchers, numbers 5 and 6 on Rany’s list don’t really fit the prediction either. They would be Livan Hernandez and Pedro Martinez. Pedro, of course, would go on to be perhaps the greatest pitcher there ever was from 1999 to 2001*, so we don’t need to discuss that any further.** Hernandez was before, and has been, a just-below-average pitcher. He posted a 95 ERA+ from ’96-’98, and a 97 ERA+ since then. It should be noted that he’s pitched over 2500 innings from 1999 to the present, and has never suffered a major arm injury.
*Martinez would post a 2.01 ERA in those 3 years, with 760 K’s in 547 innings against only 94 BB’s, and astounding 8.09 K/BB ratio. That all works out to a 246 ERA+, which, for perspective, has only been achieved by 3 other pitchers in one SEASON since integration. (Those three pitchers? That’s our AFLAC trivia question.)
**Though it is worth mentioning that in 2001, Pedro only made 18 starts due to a rotator cuff injury.
The next young pitcher on the list is more interesting. Jesus Sanchez scored a 21.9 on the PAP index, the year he threw 171 innings as a rookie. He was below league average that year, and would be his entire career. He would only one other season throw for more than 171 innings, in 2000 he would throw 182. But one wonders what might have been. Rany says, “Sanchez…is having his right arm throw to the wolves.”
The next name on the list is another interesting one, and one of my sneaky-favorite players on my youth: Brad Radke. I’ve always felt Radke was one of the more underrated players from my 9-15 years, posting a 116 ERA+ despite a unseemly 4.35 ERA. Indeed, after his 1998 season (his third with 200+ IP), he posted 200+ IP’s 6 seasons over the next 7, though he did miss about 12 starts in 2002.
He rather memorably carried the Twins to a postseason berth in the 2006 season (at the expense of his right shoulder), especially replacing Francisco Liriano (more on him later) after he went down with elbow soreness. Of course, he suffered from a torn labrum since the beginning of the season, and had pitched through it the entire season. He also suffered a stress fracture in his right shoulder in late August, but only missed one start. The extent of his injuries forced him to retire after that season, at the age of 33.
A quick rundown of the other young pitchers on Rany’s list: Jaret Wright was 22 when he scored a 15.1 PAP, and he missed most of three seasons with a chronic shoulder injury, starting in 1999. Shawn Estes pitched regularly until 2004, and then suffered several shoulder problems, including undergoing Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2006 and 2007 seasons. Jason Schmidt pitched effectively for several years, including a great 2003 season when he posted a 2.34 ERA and struck out a batter an innings. He signed with the Dodgers in 2007, but was shut down after 25 innings due to shoulder soreness.
Ah, but of course I forgot to mention perhaps the most interesting name on Rany’s list: Kerry Wood. Wood was one of the most impressive rookie pitchers of all time, going 13-6 with a 3.40 ERA and a 12.6 K/9 ratio in his rookie season in 1998. He famously pitched a one-hit, zero-walk, twenty strikeout game, good for a 105 Game Score, the highest since 1974 and 18th best since 1952, when Baseball-Reference begins tracking Game Scores. He pitched 166 innings that rookie season, and scored a 14.2 PAP. Here’s what Rany has to say about Wood:
“And, of course, I can't write this article without mentioning Kerry Wood. At 21, he's the youngest name on this list, and he's in the middle of the pack as far as abuse goes. He hasn't thrown more than 128 pitches in a game this year, but he has a number of outings in the 120+ range. I don't think he's in grave danger of injury - he's a big guy with good mechanics, relies on his fastball, and doesn't throw a splitter. But I do think that Jim Riggleman should take a little more care of the most prized arm of the decade.”
We all know what happened. Wood would miss the entire 1999 season after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament, and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s struggled with arm problems ever since. I sure hope Riggleman doesn’t find himself managing “the most prized arm of the decade” again; I would hate to see what might happen to that poor young man.
*It should be noted that that Cy Young Award was a complete sham, and perhaps the dying breath of the power of the win. Colon had a 3.48 ERA to go along with his 21 wins, which led the league. That was good for a 122 ERA+ - certainly excellent, but barely Cy Young-worthy. The award that year almost certainly should have gone to Johan Santana, who posted a 155 ERA+ in 231 innings, but only recorded 16 wins with a punchless Twins lineup supporting him.
Continuing our look at young pitchers, numbers 5 and 6 on Rany’s list don’t really fit the prediction either. They would be Livan Hernandez and Pedro Martinez. Pedro, of course, would go on to be perhaps the greatest pitcher there ever was from 1999 to 2001*, so we don’t need to discuss that any further.** Hernandez was before, and has been, a just-below-average pitcher. He posted a 95 ERA+ from ’96-’98, and a 97 ERA+ since then. It should be noted that he’s pitched over 2500 innings from 1999 to the present, and has never suffered a major arm injury.
*Martinez would post a 2.01 ERA in those 3 years, with 760 K’s in 547 innings against only 94 BB’s, and astounding 8.09 K/BB ratio. That all works out to a 246 ERA+, which, for perspective, has only been achieved by 3 other pitchers in one SEASON since integration. (Those three pitchers? That’s our AFLAC trivia question.)
**Though it is worth mentioning that in 2001, Pedro only made 18 starts due to a rotator cuff injury.
The next young pitcher on the list is more interesting. Jesus Sanchez scored a 21.9 on the PAP index, the year he threw 171 innings as a rookie. He was below league average that year, and would be his entire career. He would only one other season throw for more than 171 innings, in 2000 he would throw 182. But one wonders what might have been. Rany says, “Sanchez…is having his right arm throw to the wolves.”
The next name on the list is another interesting one, and one of my sneaky-favorite players on my youth: Brad Radke. I’ve always felt Radke was one of the more underrated players from my 9-15 years, posting a 116 ERA+ despite a unseemly 4.35 ERA. Indeed, after his 1998 season (his third with 200+ IP), he posted 200+ IP’s 6 seasons over the next 7, though he did miss about 12 starts in 2002.
He rather memorably carried the Twins to a postseason berth in the 2006 season (at the expense of his right shoulder), especially replacing Francisco Liriano (more on him later) after he went down with elbow soreness. Of course, he suffered from a torn labrum since the beginning of the season, and had pitched through it the entire season. He also suffered a stress fracture in his right shoulder in late August, but only missed one start. The extent of his injuries forced him to retire after that season, at the age of 33.
A quick rundown of the other young pitchers on Rany’s list: Jaret Wright was 22 when he scored a 15.1 PAP, and he missed most of three seasons with a chronic shoulder injury, starting in 1999. Shawn Estes pitched regularly until 2004, and then suffered several shoulder problems, including undergoing Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2006 and 2007 seasons. Jason Schmidt pitched effectively for several years, including a great 2003 season when he posted a 2.34 ERA and struck out a batter an innings. He signed with the Dodgers in 2007, but was shut down after 25 innings due to shoulder soreness.
Ah, but of course I forgot to mention perhaps the most interesting name on Rany’s list: Kerry Wood. Wood was one of the most impressive rookie pitchers of all time, going 13-6 with a 3.40 ERA and a 12.6 K/9 ratio in his rookie season in 1998. He famously pitched a one-hit, zero-walk, twenty strikeout game, good for a 105 Game Score, the highest since 1974 and 18th best since 1952, when Baseball-Reference begins tracking Game Scores. He pitched 166 innings that rookie season, and scored a 14.2 PAP. Here’s what Rany has to say about Wood:
“And, of course, I can't write this article without mentioning Kerry Wood. At 21, he's the youngest name on this list, and he's in the middle of the pack as far as abuse goes. He hasn't thrown more than 128 pitches in a game this year, but he has a number of outings in the 120+ range. I don't think he's in grave danger of injury - he's a big guy with good mechanics, relies on his fastball, and doesn't throw a splitter. But I do think that Jim Riggleman should take a little more care of the most prized arm of the decade.”
We all know what happened. Wood would miss the entire 1999 season after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament, and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s struggled with arm problems ever since. I sure hope Riggleman doesn’t find himself managing “the most prized arm of the decade” again; I would hate to see what might happen to that poor young man.
