The 2011 Giants Payroll

It’s been mere days since the Giants wrapped up their first World Series Championship since 1954, and already GM Brian Sabean is diving headlong into the Hot Stove season. In 2010, the Giants already had their highest payroll figure ever, at just over $96 million dollars. The question now is, how much higher can we expect it to go? How much higher can the owners afford to let it go?

The Giants have eight players that are arbitration eligible for 2010, as well as decisions to be made about Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Juan Uribe. The Giants have already declined Edgar Renteria’s $10.5 million dollar option for 2011, and I agree with the move. Renteria is old and fragile, and would be hard pressed to put up $10.5 million worth of production.

So, as of now, the Giants are committed to around $79 million in payroll for next year. I expect them to get a deal done with Huff and Uribe at least. Let’s use the figure that Fangraphs contributor and blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron crowd sourced last week from Fangraphs readers. They figured Huff would get a two year deal worth $8mil a year. Uribe made $3.25mil this season, and, after posting a 2.0 WAR season, is due for a slight raise. Let’s say they sign him for 2 years, $6mil per. That puts them at $93 million.

Now, the eight players that are arbitration eligible are Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Chris Ray, and Javier Lopez. Let’s break this down player by player:

Definitely getting tendered: Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Javier Lopez

These guys will all definitely get offered contracts, and I agree with that. All are solid players; Torres and Ross figure to start next year, Sanchez is the number three guy in the rotation, Casilla had 56 K’s in 55 innings, and Lopez had a transcendent postseason to go along with a solid regular season.

Might get tendered: Mike Fontenot, Ramon Ramirez

I would disagree if either of these players were offered a contract. Fontenot can play three positions, but none of them well, and a slap-happy bat with nearly no pop. In 76 PA’s with the Giants, he slugged on .310, and in his last 680 PA’s he’s slugging .376. In 348.2 innings this year at second base, he cost the Cubs and Giants 6 runs. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. Meanwhile, Ramirez is a serviceable right-hander out of the pen, but I just don’t see a reason to keep him around.

Definitely shouldn’t get tendered: Chris Ray

He could go in the other category, as he’s nearly identical to Ramirez. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. An xFIP of 5.30 doesn’t help his case, nor does a 5.01 K/9 rate, especially when contrasted with his BB/9 rate of 4.04.

Ideally, the Giants would offer arbitration to Torres, Sanchez, Casilla, Ross, and Lopez, and let’s say they get raises of a combined $7.5mil. That puts us at approximately $100.5 million dollars so far for 2011. Would ownership be willing to push that to $120mil-plus in order to go after Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth? I think they should, because a heavy-hitting outfielder is exactly what this team needs.*

*If the Giants decide to let Pat Burrell walk and go after Crawford or Werth (at a significantly higher cost), it is worth noting that, in 2010:

Pat Burrell, age 33: .262/.364/.509

Jayson Werth, age 31: .296/.388/.532

Carl Crawford, age 28: .307/.358/.495

If the Giants were to increase payroll to $120 million, that would represent a 20% increase in payroll from this year. That got me wondering: historically, what happens to a team’s payroll after winning the World Series? Intuitively, I would expect that it would go up. The team is more attractive to free agents, cash flow increases as season tickets are sold faster, enthusiasm from the fan base leads to more rash decisions, etc. But I decided to look back on the last ten years and see what the trends were.*

*I only went to 2000 because that was as much data as my contract and payroll source, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, had.

So, do payrolls typically increase? The easy answer is yes. Payroll has increased an average of 7% the year after winning the World Series over the last ten years. The worst offender were the 2006 Chicago White Sox, who, after ending their 88-year World Series drought the previous year, increased their payroll from $75.2mil to $102.8mil, a staggering 26% increase. In the last ten years, there have been three teams that actually cut payroll the season after they won it all. One is the 2004 Florida Marlins, to no one’s surprise. They cut payroll from $45.1mil in 2003, when they won the title, to $42.2mil in 2004.*

*Can you imagine a team winning a title with a $45.1 million payroll? Even after inflation, that’s like a team winning the title with a $53 million payroll today. For comparison, the A’s payroll was $58 million.

The other two times it happened last decade were actually by the same team. The Boston Red Sox, surprisingly enough, cut payroll after both of their Series wins in the 2000s. In 2005, they cut payroll 3% after ending the Curse, and after their second title in ’07 they cut payroll 7%.

So, a 20% increase in payroll is rare, but not unheard of. After winning it all in 2002, the Angels boosted payroll 21%, and the year before that the Diamondbacks raised payroll 16%. The Phillies raised payroll 13% after winning in 2008. However, I just don’t think it’s worth it to push payroll that high if they don’t have to. As I showed earlier, Pat Burrell offers nearly the same offensive skill set as Werth or Crawford for undoubtedly less money. Obviously, he isn’t in the same league as them defensively, but with Torres and Ross playing the other outfield positions, I think it matters little.