This is the first in an occasional series of posts about one of my favorite days of the baseball season: draft day. Hopefully, I'll be able to take a look at several of this year's top prospects and post a short (or not-so-short) write up on each one. This first is on the UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer.
I made the trek out to beautiful Jackie Robinson stadium last Saturday to watch UCLA take on St. Mary's in the second game of the Dodgertown Classic. Trevor Bauer was pitching for the Bruins, and here are some notes, impressions, and statistics for the talented junior.
(Side note: I got to meet Keith Law at the game yesterday, he was there scouting Bauer as well. Cool guy.)
Trevor Bauer is a 20 year old junior right handed pitcher out of North Hollywood, CA. According to his UCLA player profile,his favorite pro player is Tim Lincecum, and when trying to project Bauer Lincecum is the first player that comes to mind. The comparison isn't perfect, of course. Bauer (listed at 6'2', 185) is bigger than Lincecum, and while at first glance their delivery's look similar (for a great slo-mo video of Bauer in last year's Houston Classic click here) closer looks reveal some differences. Most prominently, Bauer doesn't recreate Lincecum's now-famous "dangle," where his pitching arm hangs loose straight down towards the ground. In addition, Bauer's stride isn't nearly as long as Lincecum's. The thing that gives me pause the most about Bauer's delivery, however, is his seeming inability to repeat it. As I watched, his landing foot seemed to land in a different place every time, and was dramatically different between the stretch and the windup. On the plus side, Bauer is famous for his incredible work ethic and work-out routine, and his delivery avoids the dreaded "inverted W" that has been fingered as the culprit to many arm injuries.
As for his results, there may not be a college pitcher in the country with better stats over the last two years than Bauer (and that includes his teammate and near-guaranteed top 2 pick Gerritt Cole). Coming into this season, his career statistics looked like:
IP ERA K BB K/9 BB/9 K/BB WHIP OAVG
236.2 3.00 257 68 9.77 2.58 3.78 1.21 .236
His 2011 season statistics look like this:
IP ERA K BB K/9 BB/9 K/BB WHIP OAVG
31.2 1.71 46 14 13.07 3.97 3.28 1.04 .167
Notes from the game on Saturday:
He's got three pitches: a fastball that sits 94-95 and can touch 97, a plus curveball that serves as his strikeout pitch, and an average changeup he uses to keep hitters off-balance. He's upped his fastball velocity this year by about 3 MPH, but it shows in his lack of control. He consistently missed his with his fastball, and it hurt him in the sixth, when St. Mary's 3B Pat Wisdom hit one way over the 347 sign in left-center.
Out of the stretch he had some serious struggles with control early, and he just couldn't find the zone. All three of his walks and his HBP occured in the first three innings. After a bullpen session during the bottom of the fourth (while UCLA was up to bat) he really found a second wind and cruised from there. Keith Law reported yesterday that he was still sitting 92-93 into the seventh inning, well after his 100th pitch. Besides the homer in the sixth, he looked overwhelmingly dominant. His game line looked like this:
7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K, 123 pitches
Yes, you read that right, a week after throwing 129 pitches in sub-freezing temperatures in Omaha, John Savage leaves Bauer out there to throw 123 pitches in a 10-2 game. There was no good reason to have him come out in the 8th, and probably not for the 7th either. But that's a conversation for another time.
Draft Prospects:
Pros: He already has two plus pitches in his fastball and his curveball, and his changeup is at worst average. He has become famous for his eccentric workout routine and incredible flexibility, and seems to have all the makings of a front-of-the-staff workhorse. His fastball and his curveball are both strikeout pitches, and his fastball really does have that late life that makes it appear to jump across the plate. Curveball buckled knees all night, drew a lot of looking strikes. Led the country in strikeouts last year.
Cons: His workload, especially this season, has been high. His motion has made a lot of trainers squirm, even though he has no history of arm problems. He has sacrificed control for velocity a bit this year.
Overall, I would say that Bauer is most likely a mid-first round pick, somewhere between 15 and 25. He's in a pack of pitchers behind the Cole-Purke-Gray group, but he's not far behind them.
15 March 2011
10 February 2011
Giants Top 20 Prospects, Position Players
Prospecting has never been my strong suit. I’ve always considered myself informed, but withdrawn from the Russian roulette game known as prospect mavenry. But, as my Giants fandom only gets worse (or better, depending on your point of view, I suppose) I decided to take my first-ever stab at making some sort of prospect list.
A few housekeeping items: I have decided to make two different lists, one for pitchers and one for hitters. This is the hitters list; the pitchers list will follow shortly. I chose to focus on the available professional statistics for many of the prospects that follow and weighed less on the scouting side of things; the obvious exceptions are those prospects with little or no professional experience (Gary Brown, Jarrett Parker). Still, I rank Brown and Parker lower than just about everybody else, with the caveat that they can move up this list very quickly if they start with a bang. I also weigh the most recent season’s statistics much heavier than any previous season.
With that out of the way, let’s get started. The top 5 catching prospects:
1. Tommy Joseph (18, A)
2. Hector Sanchez (20, A)
3. Johnny Monell (24, A+)
4. Dan Burkhart (21, A-)
5. Joe Staley (21, Rk)
Comments: LTP takes the top spot among catchers despite a poor season in Single-A Augusta. The caveat to his .236/.290/.401 season? He was only 18 years old, very young for full season A-ball. His .175 ISO looks good, but is K/BB is downright scary (116/26). Joseph has time on his hands, and should improve this season. Hector Sanchez was also young for A-ball (20 y.o.) and has displayed decent disciple. He is also the superior backstop. Monell spent the year in high-A San Jose. He was pretty old for the league (24) and put up a pretty decent line (.273/.350/.487 with 19 HRs and 25 doubles) but apparently needs work behind the dish. We’ll see how he handles AA. Burkhart is somewhat of an enigma (only 70 PAs) but after him the system is pretty shallow.
Top 5 First Basemen:
1. Brandon Belt (22, A+, AA, AAA)
2. Andy D’Alessio (25, AA)
3. Luke Anders (23, A)
4. Brett Pill (25, AAA)
5. Sundrendy Windster (21, Rk)
Comments: Belt’s season has been very well documented so I won’t go into much more detail here other than point out that he led all Giants minor leaguers with 23 HRs this season to go with 43 doubles. Not a whole lot else to get excited about except the intriguing Sundrendy Windster, who, in addition to having the greatest name in professional baseball, boasted a .311/.416/.594 line in ~130 PAs in rookie ball this year. Keep your eye on him.
Top 5 Second Baseman:
1. Charlie Culberson (21, A+)
2. Brock Bond (24, AAA)
3. Ryan Cavan (23, A)
4. Nick Noonan (21, AA)
5. Carlos Willoughby (21, Rk)
Comments: Culberson had quite the breakout year this year in high-A, putting up a line of .290/.340/.457 after finally finding a position. He seems to have something of a clank-mitt so we’ll see if he sticks at second base. He also tore up the Arizona Fall League and is considerably younger than I assumed (He’s only 22). The only thing I have to say about Bond is ZOMG that OBP and K/BB!! He’ll probably see some time in the majors this year. Ryan Cavan is a guy that not many people are talking about, but had a great season this year in Augusta (.283/.352/.451 with 17 HRs and 34 2Bs). He’s another guy to keep an eye on. Noonan needs to bounce back from injuries he suffered last season before I rank him higher. Willoughby is a great down-list sleeper. He had a great season in rookie ball (.295/.372/.432 with 23 SBs to only 4 CS) and has a reputation as a speedy middle infielder with not a lot of power.
Top 5 Third Baseman:
1. Jose Flores (22, A+)
2. Conor Gillaspie (22, AA)
3. Chris Dominguez (23, A)
4. Drew Biery (24, A+)
5. Wes Hobson (22, Rk)
Comments: Why is no one talking about Jose Flores? In his age-22 season in high-A, he hit .331/.381/.457 with an average walk rate and low K rate. I like him to surprise next year. Gillaspie had a bit of a down year last year, but is still on track to challenge for the major league job in 2012. Is Chris Dominguez the second coming of Mark Reynolds? In HRs and Ks, perhaps, but he doesn’t walk enough to justify a K rate around 25%. He did finish second amongst Giants minor leaguers with 21 HRs. Nothing else to look at after those three.
Top 5 Shortstops:
1. Ehire Adrianza (20, A+)
2. Brandon Crawford (23, AA)
3. Ryan Lormand (24, A+, AA, AAA)
4. Juan Martinez (23, A)
5. Carter Jurica (21, A-)
Comments: Yuck. Not a darn thing after all-glove/no-hit twins Adrianza and Crawford. Crawford (Bruin Pride, yo), who will almost certainly see Major League time this season, hit .243/.337/.375 at Richmond this season. At least that walk rate looks alright. Adrianza is three years younger than Crawford and hit .256/.333/.348 in San Jose. He’s got a slightly better glove than Crawford and is faster (33 SBs), those factors plus age gives him the number one spot by a nose. No one else worth mentioning here.
Top 5 Left Fielders: (Note: I understand that minor league OF positions are largely meaningless, but I needed to split them up somehow. Players are divided by the position at which they played the most games in 2010.)
1. Thomas Neal (22, AA)
2. James Simmons (24, A+)
3. Wendell Fairley (22, A+)
4. Nick Liles (22, A)
5. Ryan Scoma (22, A-)
Comments: Neal didn’t so much take a step back in 2010 as he did take a step sideways (or tread water, if you prefer). He hit .291/.359/.440, and the only beef I have with his performance is that I would like to see more power out of a left fielder. Simmons was quite old for high-A this year (24) but showed pretty good power (.186 ISO). Fairley took a huge step back this year after being reasonably highly touted last year. He joined the OPB>SLG club (.362 OBP, .343 SLG). Scoma just missed my top-5 sleepers list. He showed pretty fantastic patience in low-A this year, and just needs to develop some power before becoming a legit prospect.
Top 5 Center Fielders:
1. Francisco Peguero (22, A+)
2. Chuckie Jones (17, Rk)
3. Gary Brown (21, Rk)
4. Jarrett Parker (21, Rk)
5. Juan Perez (23, A+)
Comments: Peguero experienced a pretty significant breakout this year, with a line of .329/.353/.488 in high-A. He also stole 40 bags in San Jose. Unless he figures out how to take a walk, he figures to be a “slap in on the ground and run like hell” kind of hitter. The projection system ZiPS, rather bizarrely, has him as an average major leaguer right now. Re: Chuckie Jones, I know he probably won’t play center (more likely right) but he did play there the most this season. He hit .279/.360/.461 in 165 ABs in Rookie ball this year, as a 17 year-old. With any luck, he’ll have a good year this year and will shoot up the prospect charts. Brown and Parker come as a package deal: toolsy college outfielders without much (or, in Parker’s case, any) professional experience. I admit to just kind of sticking them in here, I’d like to see a few hundred PAs before making any kind of analysis. Brown’s lack of walks in college isn’t a great sign, though. Juan Perez was 23 in A+ last season, and hit .298/.337/.472. The K/BB ain’t great, but give him a year in AA and we’ll see where we stand.
Top 5 Right Fielders:
1. Roger Kieschnick (23, AA)
2. Rafael Rodriguez (17, A-, Rk)
3. Ryan Lollis (23, A)
4. Jose Medina (23, A-)
5. Clay Timpner (27, AA)
Comments: Kieschnick had something of a lost season after a year marred by back injuries. There really isn’t a whole lot in the system as far as right fielders, however, so he holds on to the top spot. We’ll see how he rebounds from injury. Rodriguez is only 17, so hopefully he’ll be able to build on last season in Rookie ball (.301/.323/.398). Lollis is intriguing, he was 23 in Augusta last year and hit .288/.345/.380. I’d like to see more power, but the above average walk rate and average K/BB rate show promise. The only interesting things about Medina and Timpner are their walk rates.
So there you have it. Here are my top 20 position players:
1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Francisco Peguero, OF
3. Chuckie Jones, OF
4. Tommy Joseph, C
5. Gary Brown, OF
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Jose Flores, 3B
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Charlie Culberson, 2B
10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
11. Brandon Crawford, SS
12. Brock Bond, 2B
13. Chris Dominguez, 3B
14. Jarrett Parker, OF
15. Hector Sanchez, C
16. Juan Perez, OF
17. Ryan Cavan, 2B
18. Nick Noonan, 2B
19. Roger Kieschnick, OF
20. Carlos Willoughby, 2B
Comments: I am probably unnaturally high on Jose Flores, Ryan Cavan, and Carlos Willoughby, and unnaturally low on Brandon Crawford. Also, I’m really high on the Teenage Dreams: Jones and Joseph. As you can see, the system is pretty strong with second basemen and outfielders, and pretty weak on shortstops.
My top 5 sleepers (guys most likely to take the leap this year):
1. Jose Flores, 3B
2. Juan Perez, OF
3. Ryan Cavan, 2B
4. Chris Lofton, OF
5. Sundrendy Windster, 1B
Comments: I’ve commented on most of these guys already, but the CF class is so deep I had Chris Lofton ranked as our 7th best centerfielder. He hit .268/.350/.343 in low class-A Salem-Keizer as a 20 year old, to go along with 15 steals with only 5 caught stealing. He strikes out too much, but his walk rate is pretty good. If he can develop even a little bit of power than he can really make a move up the board.
So that’s my list. Feel free to leave some suggestions.
A few housekeeping items: I have decided to make two different lists, one for pitchers and one for hitters. This is the hitters list; the pitchers list will follow shortly. I chose to focus on the available professional statistics for many of the prospects that follow and weighed less on the scouting side of things; the obvious exceptions are those prospects with little or no professional experience (Gary Brown, Jarrett Parker). Still, I rank Brown and Parker lower than just about everybody else, with the caveat that they can move up this list very quickly if they start with a bang. I also weigh the most recent season’s statistics much heavier than any previous season.
With that out of the way, let’s get started. The top 5 catching prospects:
1. Tommy Joseph (18, A)
2. Hector Sanchez (20, A)
3. Johnny Monell (24, A+)
4. Dan Burkhart (21, A-)
5. Joe Staley (21, Rk)
Comments: LTP takes the top spot among catchers despite a poor season in Single-A Augusta. The caveat to his .236/.290/.401 season? He was only 18 years old, very young for full season A-ball. His .175 ISO looks good, but is K/BB is downright scary (116/26). Joseph has time on his hands, and should improve this season. Hector Sanchez was also young for A-ball (20 y.o.) and has displayed decent disciple. He is also the superior backstop. Monell spent the year in high-A San Jose. He was pretty old for the league (24) and put up a pretty decent line (.273/.350/.487 with 19 HRs and 25 doubles) but apparently needs work behind the dish. We’ll see how he handles AA. Burkhart is somewhat of an enigma (only 70 PAs) but after him the system is pretty shallow.
Top 5 First Basemen:
1. Brandon Belt (22, A+, AA, AAA)
2. Andy D’Alessio (25, AA)
3. Luke Anders (23, A)
4. Brett Pill (25, AAA)
5. Sundrendy Windster (21, Rk)
Comments: Belt’s season has been very well documented so I won’t go into much more detail here other than point out that he led all Giants minor leaguers with 23 HRs this season to go with 43 doubles. Not a whole lot else to get excited about except the intriguing Sundrendy Windster, who, in addition to having the greatest name in professional baseball, boasted a .311/.416/.594 line in ~130 PAs in rookie ball this year. Keep your eye on him.
Top 5 Second Baseman:
1. Charlie Culberson (21, A+)
2. Brock Bond (24, AAA)
3. Ryan Cavan (23, A)
4. Nick Noonan (21, AA)
5. Carlos Willoughby (21, Rk)
Comments: Culberson had quite the breakout year this year in high-A, putting up a line of .290/.340/.457 after finally finding a position. He seems to have something of a clank-mitt so we’ll see if he sticks at second base. He also tore up the Arizona Fall League and is considerably younger than I assumed (He’s only 22). The only thing I have to say about Bond is ZOMG that OBP and K/BB!! He’ll probably see some time in the majors this year. Ryan Cavan is a guy that not many people are talking about, but had a great season this year in Augusta (.283/.352/.451 with 17 HRs and 34 2Bs). He’s another guy to keep an eye on. Noonan needs to bounce back from injuries he suffered last season before I rank him higher. Willoughby is a great down-list sleeper. He had a great season in rookie ball (.295/.372/.432 with 23 SBs to only 4 CS) and has a reputation as a speedy middle infielder with not a lot of power.
Top 5 Third Baseman:
1. Jose Flores (22, A+)
2. Conor Gillaspie (22, AA)
3. Chris Dominguez (23, A)
4. Drew Biery (24, A+)
5. Wes Hobson (22, Rk)
Comments: Why is no one talking about Jose Flores? In his age-22 season in high-A, he hit .331/.381/.457 with an average walk rate and low K rate. I like him to surprise next year. Gillaspie had a bit of a down year last year, but is still on track to challenge for the major league job in 2012. Is Chris Dominguez the second coming of Mark Reynolds? In HRs and Ks, perhaps, but he doesn’t walk enough to justify a K rate around 25%. He did finish second amongst Giants minor leaguers with 21 HRs. Nothing else to look at after those three.
Top 5 Shortstops:
1. Ehire Adrianza (20, A+)
2. Brandon Crawford (23, AA)
3. Ryan Lormand (24, A+, AA, AAA)
4. Juan Martinez (23, A)
5. Carter Jurica (21, A-)
Comments: Yuck. Not a darn thing after all-glove/no-hit twins Adrianza and Crawford. Crawford (Bruin Pride, yo), who will almost certainly see Major League time this season, hit .243/.337/.375 at Richmond this season. At least that walk rate looks alright. Adrianza is three years younger than Crawford and hit .256/.333/.348 in San Jose. He’s got a slightly better glove than Crawford and is faster (33 SBs), those factors plus age gives him the number one spot by a nose. No one else worth mentioning here.
Top 5 Left Fielders: (Note: I understand that minor league OF positions are largely meaningless, but I needed to split them up somehow. Players are divided by the position at which they played the most games in 2010.)
1. Thomas Neal (22, AA)
2. James Simmons (24, A+)
3. Wendell Fairley (22, A+)
4. Nick Liles (22, A)
5. Ryan Scoma (22, A-)
Comments: Neal didn’t so much take a step back in 2010 as he did take a step sideways (or tread water, if you prefer). He hit .291/.359/.440, and the only beef I have with his performance is that I would like to see more power out of a left fielder. Simmons was quite old for high-A this year (24) but showed pretty good power (.186 ISO). Fairley took a huge step back this year after being reasonably highly touted last year. He joined the OPB>SLG club (.362 OBP, .343 SLG). Scoma just missed my top-5 sleepers list. He showed pretty fantastic patience in low-A this year, and just needs to develop some power before becoming a legit prospect.
Top 5 Center Fielders:
1. Francisco Peguero (22, A+)
2. Chuckie Jones (17, Rk)
3. Gary Brown (21, Rk)
4. Jarrett Parker (21, Rk)
5. Juan Perez (23, A+)
Comments: Peguero experienced a pretty significant breakout this year, with a line of .329/.353/.488 in high-A. He also stole 40 bags in San Jose. Unless he figures out how to take a walk, he figures to be a “slap in on the ground and run like hell” kind of hitter. The projection system ZiPS, rather bizarrely, has him as an average major leaguer right now. Re: Chuckie Jones, I know he probably won’t play center (more likely right) but he did play there the most this season. He hit .279/.360/.461 in 165 ABs in Rookie ball this year, as a 17 year-old. With any luck, he’ll have a good year this year and will shoot up the prospect charts. Brown and Parker come as a package deal: toolsy college outfielders without much (or, in Parker’s case, any) professional experience. I admit to just kind of sticking them in here, I’d like to see a few hundred PAs before making any kind of analysis. Brown’s lack of walks in college isn’t a great sign, though. Juan Perez was 23 in A+ last season, and hit .298/.337/.472. The K/BB ain’t great, but give him a year in AA and we’ll see where we stand.
Top 5 Right Fielders:
1. Roger Kieschnick (23, AA)
2. Rafael Rodriguez (17, A-, Rk)
3. Ryan Lollis (23, A)
4. Jose Medina (23, A-)
5. Clay Timpner (27, AA)
Comments: Kieschnick had something of a lost season after a year marred by back injuries. There really isn’t a whole lot in the system as far as right fielders, however, so he holds on to the top spot. We’ll see how he rebounds from injury. Rodriguez is only 17, so hopefully he’ll be able to build on last season in Rookie ball (.301/.323/.398). Lollis is intriguing, he was 23 in Augusta last year and hit .288/.345/.380. I’d like to see more power, but the above average walk rate and average K/BB rate show promise. The only interesting things about Medina and Timpner are their walk rates.
So there you have it. Here are my top 20 position players:
1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Francisco Peguero, OF
3. Chuckie Jones, OF
4. Tommy Joseph, C
5. Gary Brown, OF
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Jose Flores, 3B
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Charlie Culberson, 2B
10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
11. Brandon Crawford, SS
12. Brock Bond, 2B
13. Chris Dominguez, 3B
14. Jarrett Parker, OF
15. Hector Sanchez, C
16. Juan Perez, OF
17. Ryan Cavan, 2B
18. Nick Noonan, 2B
19. Roger Kieschnick, OF
20. Carlos Willoughby, 2B
Comments: I am probably unnaturally high on Jose Flores, Ryan Cavan, and Carlos Willoughby, and unnaturally low on Brandon Crawford. Also, I’m really high on the Teenage Dreams: Jones and Joseph. As you can see, the system is pretty strong with second basemen and outfielders, and pretty weak on shortstops.
My top 5 sleepers (guys most likely to take the leap this year):
1. Jose Flores, 3B
2. Juan Perez, OF
3. Ryan Cavan, 2B
4. Chris Lofton, OF
5. Sundrendy Windster, 1B
Comments: I’ve commented on most of these guys already, but the CF class is so deep I had Chris Lofton ranked as our 7th best centerfielder. He hit .268/.350/.343 in low class-A Salem-Keizer as a 20 year old, to go along with 15 steals with only 5 caught stealing. He strikes out too much, but his walk rate is pretty good. If he can develop even a little bit of power than he can really make a move up the board.
So that’s my list. Feel free to leave some suggestions.
03 February 2011
Matt Cain: a PITCHf/x look into his xFIP-defying ways
As you probably saw, yesterday saw not one, not two, but three articles about Matt Cain and his xFIP-defying superpowers. It started with Paapfly’s post “Matt Cain ignores xFIP, again and again”, then got picked up by FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron, Tom Tango, and SBNation’s own (!!) Rob Neyer.
First, some statistics. For his career Matt Cain is the owner of 3.45 ERA, which is fantastic. His FIP, which strips luck and fielding out of the equation, gives him a slight bump to 3.84, which is still quite good. xFIP adjusts the home run per fly ball rate to the league average of 10.6%, which hurts Cain. A lot. His 7.0% career mark is a full 33% below the league average. The theory behind xFIP is that the HR/FB ratio is a statistic that a pitcher cannot control, and as such it fluctuates year to year, much like BABIP. The thing with Cain is, over the course of his career (almost 1,100 IP), that rate hasn’t fluctuated. In fact, it has stayed remarkably constant. Here are his HR/FB ratios since 2006, his first full season as a starter: 7.1%, 5.5%, 6.8%, 8.4%, 7.4%. Still, Cain has largely been dismissed as a fluke or merely lucky, just the other day Baseball Prospectus writer Bill Baer called Cain “one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball.” Baer continued to cite Cain’s home ballpark, and its well-known penchant for suppressing homers. But, as Paapfly points out, Cain’s career home/road splits simply don’t show it. His home HR/FB ratio is 6.7%, on the road, its 7.4%. That’s a result, but not much of one.
Let’s try to tackle this problem using PITCHf/x. Some basics: Cain throws five pitches: a four-seam fastball that sits 91-92 and touches 95, a curveball that sits around 77 and has about 7 inches of downward break, a changeup that sits around 85 and breaks inward to a RHB, a slider that sits 85, and a seldom-used two seam fastball that sits 92-93. He throws his fastball most often, about 58% of all pitches. His most effective pitch, according to FanGraphs linear weights, is either his four-seamer or his changeup, both coming in at just over a run above average per 100 pitches. He decreased the usage of his slider this year, favoring the changeup.
By looking at Cain’s PITCHf/x splits, when can glean some assumptions out of the data. The first obvious thing one notices is that Cain likes to stay away. This makes sense: Cain’s fastball has at best average velocity, and off-speed pitches are generally more effective on the outside part of the plate because a hitter has more trouble turning on one.
Another thing that struck me is Cain’s pitch splits by batter handedness. He throws his changeup 23.2% of the time to lefties, and only 8.7% of the time to righties. On the other hand, he throws his slider 16.1% of the time to righties, while only 2.1% of the time to lefties, even less than he throws his two seamer. His curveball and two-seamer usage are in the same ballpark, regardless of batter handedness.
All of this makes intuitive sense. Cain’s changeup breaks about 7 inches toward his pitching arm side, or away from a left handed batter. Meanwhile, his slider is relatively flat, but looking at his heat map, he throws it almost exclusively low and away from a righty. This illustrates the way he uses what is probably his worst pitch to his advantage: it remains very hard to hit a low-and-away slider over the fence. The changeup heat map shows the same thing: Cain throws it exclusively low and away to lefties.
Cain's slider vs. RHB:
And his changeup vs. LHB:
Now, on to the comparisons. Dave Cameron made some comparisons to pitchers with similarly low HR/FB rates, and found that even for pitchers that kept their HR/FB low for four consecutive seasons, as Cain has, their HR/FB rose about 2% in the next two seasons. As commenter DrBGiantsFan pointed out, Cameron’s sample was primarily pitchers that were just reaching and flying past their peaks. Paapfly responded to Cameron’s post, and part of that post pointed out that Cain also has a very high infield fly ball percentage, at 12.9% in his career. Cameron and Paapfly use Roy Oswalt as the best Cain comparison, but I think I’ve found one better: Jered Weaver of the California Angels. Look at their batted ball percentages: flyballs: 48.5% Weaver, 45.3% Cain; infield fly balls: 13.1% Weaver, 12.9% Cain, home run per fly ball: 7.9% Weaver, 7.0% Cain. Both pitchers have high flyball and infield fly percentages, but don’t give up very many homeruns.
Briefly, Weaver is a right-handed pitcher with a five-pitch arsenal. He throws the same five pitches as Cain, but he uses his two-seamer and his slider far more often. An analysis of the his handedness splits shows what you were probably expected: he throws his slider 31.2% of the time against righties, but only 5.1% of the time against lefties. Conversely, he throws his changeup on 8.1% of the time against righties, but 18.9% of the time against lefties.
The similarity to Cain’s splits is striking. Unlike Cain, Weaver also mixes up his curveball according to batter handedness: 25.3% of the time against lefties, but only 0.2% of the time against righties. That’s right, Weaver threw exactly 3 curveballs to righties this year. Meanwhile, looking at Weaver’s heat maps confirm their similarities.
Weaver's slider against RHB:
And his changeup vs. LHB:
So what does it all mean? Weaver and Cain approach each at bat similarly, and each get the same results: locate the fastball away, mix it up with sliders away to righties and changeups away to lefties, with the occasional curveball and two seamer. Each gets a lot of pop-ups, a lot of fly balls, and not a lot of home runs. I think this can be attributed to their superior command: both walk very few batters: Weaver, 2.17 per 9, Cain, 2.43 per 9 in 2010.
Pitches that are breaking away from the batter are very hard to hit for home runs, but are very easy to hit lazily into the opposite field. Weaver and Cain are both adept at locating their pitches exactly where its hardest to hit strongly, and therefore induce a lot of weak pop flies to the opposite field. After the PITCHf/x analysis, I am convinced this is a repeatable skill for both Cain and Weaver, provided they continue their strike-throwing ways.
First, some statistics. For his career Matt Cain is the owner of 3.45 ERA, which is fantastic. His FIP, which strips luck and fielding out of the equation, gives him a slight bump to 3.84, which is still quite good. xFIP adjusts the home run per fly ball rate to the league average of 10.6%, which hurts Cain. A lot. His 7.0% career mark is a full 33% below the league average. The theory behind xFIP is that the HR/FB ratio is a statistic that a pitcher cannot control, and as such it fluctuates year to year, much like BABIP. The thing with Cain is, over the course of his career (almost 1,100 IP), that rate hasn’t fluctuated. In fact, it has stayed remarkably constant. Here are his HR/FB ratios since 2006, his first full season as a starter: 7.1%, 5.5%, 6.8%, 8.4%, 7.4%. Still, Cain has largely been dismissed as a fluke or merely lucky, just the other day Baseball Prospectus writer Bill Baer called Cain “one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball.” Baer continued to cite Cain’s home ballpark, and its well-known penchant for suppressing homers. But, as Paapfly points out, Cain’s career home/road splits simply don’t show it. His home HR/FB ratio is 6.7%, on the road, its 7.4%. That’s a result, but not much of one.
Let’s try to tackle this problem using PITCHf/x. Some basics: Cain throws five pitches: a four-seam fastball that sits 91-92 and touches 95, a curveball that sits around 77 and has about 7 inches of downward break, a changeup that sits around 85 and breaks inward to a RHB, a slider that sits 85, and a seldom-used two seam fastball that sits 92-93. He throws his fastball most often, about 58% of all pitches. His most effective pitch, according to FanGraphs linear weights, is either his four-seamer or his changeup, both coming in at just over a run above average per 100 pitches. He decreased the usage of his slider this year, favoring the changeup.
By looking at Cain’s PITCHf/x splits, when can glean some assumptions out of the data. The first obvious thing one notices is that Cain likes to stay away. This makes sense: Cain’s fastball has at best average velocity, and off-speed pitches are generally more effective on the outside part of the plate because a hitter has more trouble turning on one.
Another thing that struck me is Cain’s pitch splits by batter handedness. He throws his changeup 23.2% of the time to lefties, and only 8.7% of the time to righties. On the other hand, he throws his slider 16.1% of the time to righties, while only 2.1% of the time to lefties, even less than he throws his two seamer. His curveball and two-seamer usage are in the same ballpark, regardless of batter handedness.
All of this makes intuitive sense. Cain’s changeup breaks about 7 inches toward his pitching arm side, or away from a left handed batter. Meanwhile, his slider is relatively flat, but looking at his heat map, he throws it almost exclusively low and away from a righty. This illustrates the way he uses what is probably his worst pitch to his advantage: it remains very hard to hit a low-and-away slider over the fence. The changeup heat map shows the same thing: Cain throws it exclusively low and away to lefties.
Cain's slider vs. RHB:
And his changeup vs. LHB:
Now, on to the comparisons. Dave Cameron made some comparisons to pitchers with similarly low HR/FB rates, and found that even for pitchers that kept their HR/FB low for four consecutive seasons, as Cain has, their HR/FB rose about 2% in the next two seasons. As commenter DrBGiantsFan pointed out, Cameron’s sample was primarily pitchers that were just reaching and flying past their peaks. Paapfly responded to Cameron’s post, and part of that post pointed out that Cain also has a very high infield fly ball percentage, at 12.9% in his career. Cameron and Paapfly use Roy Oswalt as the best Cain comparison, but I think I’ve found one better: Jered Weaver of the California Angels. Look at their batted ball percentages: flyballs: 48.5% Weaver, 45.3% Cain; infield fly balls: 13.1% Weaver, 12.9% Cain, home run per fly ball: 7.9% Weaver, 7.0% Cain. Both pitchers have high flyball and infield fly percentages, but don’t give up very many homeruns.
Briefly, Weaver is a right-handed pitcher with a five-pitch arsenal. He throws the same five pitches as Cain, but he uses his two-seamer and his slider far more often. An analysis of the his handedness splits shows what you were probably expected: he throws his slider 31.2% of the time against righties, but only 5.1% of the time against lefties. Conversely, he throws his changeup on 8.1% of the time against righties, but 18.9% of the time against lefties.
The similarity to Cain’s splits is striking. Unlike Cain, Weaver also mixes up his curveball according to batter handedness: 25.3% of the time against lefties, but only 0.2% of the time against righties. That’s right, Weaver threw exactly 3 curveballs to righties this year. Meanwhile, looking at Weaver’s heat maps confirm their similarities.
Weaver's slider against RHB:
And his changeup vs. LHB:
So what does it all mean? Weaver and Cain approach each at bat similarly, and each get the same results: locate the fastball away, mix it up with sliders away to righties and changeups away to lefties, with the occasional curveball and two seamer. Each gets a lot of pop-ups, a lot of fly balls, and not a lot of home runs. I think this can be attributed to their superior command: both walk very few batters: Weaver, 2.17 per 9, Cain, 2.43 per 9 in 2010.
Pitches that are breaking away from the batter are very hard to hit for home runs, but are very easy to hit lazily into the opposite field. Weaver and Cain are both adept at locating their pitches exactly where its hardest to hit strongly, and therefore induce a lot of weak pop flies to the opposite field. After the PITCHf/x analysis, I am convinced this is a repeatable skill for both Cain and Weaver, provided they continue their strike-throwing ways.
07 December 2010
Trading Travis
The Giants aren’t expected to make too much of a splash the rest of the offseason, having lost Juan Uribe to the Dodgers (boooooo!) for 3yrs/$21mil, signing Miguel Tejada (just like I said they would) for 1yr/$6.5mil, and resigning Pat Burrell for 1yr/$1mil and Aubrey Huff for 2yrs/$22mil.
With that, the 25 man roster looks like this:
P: Affeldt, Bumgarner, Cain, Casilla, Lincecum, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, Runzler, Sanchez, Wilson, Zito
C: Posey, Whiteside
IF: Fontenot, Huff, Ishikawa, Sanchez, Sandoval, Tejada, DeRosa
OF: Burrell, Ross, Rowand, Schierholtz, Torres
Ah, except for one thing: that’s 26 names. There are a number of things the Giants could do here: not carry 12 pitchers, trade Ramirez/Runzler/Casilla for a backup catcher and release Whiteside, etc. Plus that list doesn’t even include uber-prospect Brandon Belt or blog favorite Ryan Rohlinger. It’s clear that the Giants need to drop a player or two from the active roster.
But who’s the most expendable Giant? Nate Schierholtz has an argument. A career defensive replacement, he’s got just a .306 wOBA in his career.* His career UZR/150 is +19.0, which is really quite fantastic. I think Schierholtz should stay in the role he assumed during the season, coming into the game in the 6th or 7th inning as a defensive replacement for Burrell. Hey, they call him Pat the Bat and not Pat the Glove for a reason.
*I realize that I use a lot of advanced statistics in my posts and I don’t explain what they mean. My apologies. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average, and it’s a stat similar to OPS, but it values on-base percentage higher because OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG. It’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the limit of my understanding. To read a fantastic description, here’s the brilliant Dave Cameron explaining it in greater detail.
Mike Fontenot has a case too, but there’s a reason the front office decided to tender him last week. He’s a valuable utility infielder who can play second, short, and third. There’s only one problem: he’s not any good at any of them. In only 152.2 innings in the field, mostly at second, he cost the Giants 2.9 runs. Sure, it’s a tine sample size, but that doesn’t make me feel better about it. He’ll be backing up the ever-fragile Freddy Sanchez at second, in addition to making some starts at short, should Miggy need a rest. He’ll stick around; there was no reason to tender him a contract if he wasn’t.
I think the most replaceable Giant has to be Travis Ishikawa. They have Huff to start and hold the position down until management decided Belt is ready, plus they already have guys on the roster in Sandoval and DeRosa who can play the position serviceably if Huff goes down with an injury or needs a day off.
Ish was drafted in the 21st round in 2002 and debuted in April, 2006. He came up for good in 2008, and in his career he boasts a batting line of .267/.324/.408 in 665 PA’s. There’s reason to believe he’s improving, too. His LineDrive% has increased every year of his career, and his HR/FB ratio looks to be due for some evening out.
Of course, Ish’s value has always come from his glove. UZR has him worth +13.5 runs per 150 games, which is quite good. In fact, that would qualify him as the best defensive 1B in the league, just ahead of Daric Barton.* Using Colin Wyers’ handy-dandy WAR calculator, Ishikawa projects to approximately a 1.2 WAR player over a full season, and that’s without factoring in any projected improvement. 1.2 WAR is worth roughly $6mil on the open market, and Ish is making basically league minimum. That’s a surplus value of over $5.5mil.
*Although third in the league is Aubrey Huff, at +6.7 runs. Maybe UZR does need a retooling after all.
Would Ish improve, given one extra year of development and the shot at a starting job somewhere else? Bill James thinks so, and I would tend to agree. James’ 2011 projections have Ish scoring a .336 wOBA next season, with a line of .268/.336/.432. I think that might be a tad optimistic, but based on Ish’s improving LD% and continuing to cut his K%, I could see him putting up something in the .325-.330 range. Couple that with his usual stellar defense and 650 PA’s from a complete season, and Ish projects somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 WAR, or worth between $8mil and $10mil.
So who are the Giants’ prospective trade partners? Ten teams had first baseman that registered less than 2.0 WAR last year: the Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Indians, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Rays, and the Blue Jays. Eliminating the two teams in division, that’s eight teams with a big need for a 1B worth league average. In addition, four teams had first basemen that cost them more than ten runs in the field: the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles. There's only one team that lands on both lists. Incredibly, the Orioles’ first baseman were both far below average at the bat (83 wRC+*) and in the field (-12.2 UZR).
*wRC+ is a version of wOBA, scaled with 100 exactly league average. Each point above 100 represents a 1% improvement, and each point below represents a 1% decline. So a 95 wRC+ is 5% below league average.
The Orioles don’t have a bad farm system either, ranking 11th in the Beyond the Box Score rankings before the season. There are several intriguing options for an Ishikawa trade. I imagine we could get a B- or a couple C prospects in return. The players don’t really much matter, perhaps someone like Matt Angle (OF, .260/.338/.303 at AAA, age 25) or Jerome Hoes (2B, .275/.372/.365 in A+, age 24 in January) would do.
The bottom line is that Travis Ishikawa could be a valuable member of a major league team if given the chance to start regularly. That opportunity isn’t going to come with the Giants, and I think both parties could gain from exploring the trade market.
It’s been a good run, Ish. It’s probably better for both of us if we just move on. It’s not you, it’s us.
With that, the 25 man roster looks like this:
P: Affeldt, Bumgarner, Cain, Casilla, Lincecum, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, Runzler, Sanchez, Wilson, Zito
C: Posey, Whiteside
IF: Fontenot, Huff, Ishikawa, Sanchez, Sandoval, Tejada, DeRosa
OF: Burrell, Ross, Rowand, Schierholtz, Torres
Ah, except for one thing: that’s 26 names. There are a number of things the Giants could do here: not carry 12 pitchers, trade Ramirez/Runzler/Casilla for a backup catcher and release Whiteside, etc. Plus that list doesn’t even include uber-prospect Brandon Belt or blog favorite Ryan Rohlinger. It’s clear that the Giants need to drop a player or two from the active roster.
But who’s the most expendable Giant? Nate Schierholtz has an argument. A career defensive replacement, he’s got just a .306 wOBA in his career.* His career UZR/150 is +19.0, which is really quite fantastic. I think Schierholtz should stay in the role he assumed during the season, coming into the game in the 6th or 7th inning as a defensive replacement for Burrell. Hey, they call him Pat the Bat and not Pat the Glove for a reason.
*I realize that I use a lot of advanced statistics in my posts and I don’t explain what they mean. My apologies. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average, and it’s a stat similar to OPS, but it values on-base percentage higher because OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG. It’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the limit of my understanding. To read a fantastic description, here’s the brilliant Dave Cameron explaining it in greater detail.
Mike Fontenot has a case too, but there’s a reason the front office decided to tender him last week. He’s a valuable utility infielder who can play second, short, and third. There’s only one problem: he’s not any good at any of them. In only 152.2 innings in the field, mostly at second, he cost the Giants 2.9 runs. Sure, it’s a tine sample size, but that doesn’t make me feel better about it. He’ll be backing up the ever-fragile Freddy Sanchez at second, in addition to making some starts at short, should Miggy need a rest. He’ll stick around; there was no reason to tender him a contract if he wasn’t.
I think the most replaceable Giant has to be Travis Ishikawa. They have Huff to start and hold the position down until management decided Belt is ready, plus they already have guys on the roster in Sandoval and DeRosa who can play the position serviceably if Huff goes down with an injury or needs a day off.
Ish was drafted in the 21st round in 2002 and debuted in April, 2006. He came up for good in 2008, and in his career he boasts a batting line of .267/.324/.408 in 665 PA’s. There’s reason to believe he’s improving, too. His LineDrive% has increased every year of his career, and his HR/FB ratio looks to be due for some evening out.
Of course, Ish’s value has always come from his glove. UZR has him worth +13.5 runs per 150 games, which is quite good. In fact, that would qualify him as the best defensive 1B in the league, just ahead of Daric Barton.* Using Colin Wyers’ handy-dandy WAR calculator, Ishikawa projects to approximately a 1.2 WAR player over a full season, and that’s without factoring in any projected improvement. 1.2 WAR is worth roughly $6mil on the open market, and Ish is making basically league minimum. That’s a surplus value of over $5.5mil.
*Although third in the league is Aubrey Huff, at +6.7 runs. Maybe UZR does need a retooling after all.
Would Ish improve, given one extra year of development and the shot at a starting job somewhere else? Bill James thinks so, and I would tend to agree. James’ 2011 projections have Ish scoring a .336 wOBA next season, with a line of .268/.336/.432. I think that might be a tad optimistic, but based on Ish’s improving LD% and continuing to cut his K%, I could see him putting up something in the .325-.330 range. Couple that with his usual stellar defense and 650 PA’s from a complete season, and Ish projects somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 WAR, or worth between $8mil and $10mil.
So who are the Giants’ prospective trade partners? Ten teams had first baseman that registered less than 2.0 WAR last year: the Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Indians, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Rays, and the Blue Jays. Eliminating the two teams in division, that’s eight teams with a big need for a 1B worth league average. In addition, four teams had first basemen that cost them more than ten runs in the field: the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles. There's only one team that lands on both lists. Incredibly, the Orioles’ first baseman were both far below average at the bat (83 wRC+*) and in the field (-12.2 UZR).
*wRC+ is a version of wOBA, scaled with 100 exactly league average. Each point above 100 represents a 1% improvement, and each point below represents a 1% decline. So a 95 wRC+ is 5% below league average.
The Orioles don’t have a bad farm system either, ranking 11th in the Beyond the Box Score rankings before the season. There are several intriguing options for an Ishikawa trade. I imagine we could get a B- or a couple C prospects in return. The players don’t really much matter, perhaps someone like Matt Angle (OF, .260/.338/.303 at AAA, age 25) or Jerome Hoes (2B, .275/.372/.365 in A+, age 24 in January) would do.
The bottom line is that Travis Ishikawa could be a valuable member of a major league team if given the chance to start regularly. That opportunity isn’t going to come with the Giants, and I think both parties could gain from exploring the trade market.
It’s been a good run, Ish. It’s probably better for both of us if we just move on. It’s not you, it’s us.
29 November 2010
Hot Stove Talk: Post-Juan Edition
Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Dodgers have signed Juan Uribe to a 3-year, $21 million contract.
Man that stinks.
Alright, now that I got that out of my system, let’s get down to real analysis. To repeat a tweet from Andrew Baggarly, I can’t blame the Giants for not matching the Dodgers’ offer, and I can’t blame Uribe for taking it. Three years was too much for me, even though $7mil per is not outlandish. I would have been ok with a Renteria-esque 2 yr/$9mil deal, but apparently Uribe wanted that third year. I simply cannot endorse the third year based on his stats this season. As I detailed last post, Uribe’s LD% is declining, his FB% is increasing, he’s had leg issues the entire time he’s been with the Giants, and much of his value last season was based on a career-high walk percentage coupled with a strikeout percentage that was his lowest since 2005. The Bill James 2011 projection has him for a .253/.307/.434 line next year. Those are good numbers for a shortstop, and would make him well worth his contract. But I just don’t see those numbers carrying for three years.
The Giants’ other options are thin. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is already off the market, as the Twins won the right to negotiate with him for his services. If those two sides come to a deal, there’s an off chance J.J. Hardy will become available. As I detailed last time, Hardy projects for a .331 wOBA next year, which coupled with an excellent glove makes him a 3.5 WAR player. If he could be had in a trade for, say, a B- prospect or a couple of C’s (think Thomas Neal or Charlie Culberson) then I say pull the trigger. He’ll probably cost around $7mil this season, and is a free agent after next season.
The remaining free-agents don’t leave much to be desired either. Miguel Tejada is available, but he doesn’t exactly inspire delusions of grandeur. He has the range of the Venus de Milo at short, so much so that he played over 800 innings at third this year for two teams. He wasn’t much better there, scoring a -9.9 UZR/150. In his last three seasons at short (3222 innings) he’s cost -2.3 runs, and only figures to get worse.
On the plus side, he does offer the flexibility of both positions, if Panda doesn’t get himself in gear. With the bat, he projects a .279/.324/.415 line, good for a .320 wOBA. Basically, he projects as an average bat and a below average glove. I can’t imagine Miggy getting more than a one-year contract anywhere, probably in the $5-$7mil range.
The Giants could offer a contract to Edgar Renteria again. Last year, he hit .276/.332/.374 in 72 games, and the Bill James projections have him doing essentially that again (.274/.333/.381) in 200 more plate appearances. With the glove, DRS had him at -2 runs last year, while UZR had him at +6.5 UZR/150. I would imagine, at the age of 33 with bad hamstrings already that he can be average at best at shortstop. I could see Renteria, over a full season, being worth about 1.5-2 WAR: league average. He will probably be available for 1yr/$5mil.
Of course, I’ve avoided the elephant in the room thus far: Derek Jeter. Let me preface this paragraph by saying that I don’t anticipate, in a million years, the Yankees and Jeter not getting a deal done. But as we stand now, the two sides seem to be pretty far apart. Jeter wants 4-5 years, somewhere in the $23mil per range. The Yankees have offered 3 years, $15 mil per. Should the two sides not make much movement, can the Giants move in there with a 4 year/$19mil per deal and snap Jeter up? More importantly, should they?
In a word, no. Jeter is coming off a career-worst year at the plate, hitting .270/.340/.370 and leading the majors in outs made. Adjusting for a move to the inferior league and a minor bounce-back, one can anticipate a line of about .295/.365/.410 next season, which would be a .344 wOBA. Jeter scored right with his career average in UZR/150 last season, at -5.1. Add it all together, and you’re looking at something like 3.5-4 WAR. That’s pretty close to $19mil in value, but it would be ridiculous to assume he could maintain that value through his age 41 season. I see the probability of the Giants getting Rowanded with this deal if they decide to stick their noses in this mess.
The farm system doesn’t have much promise either. As mentioned last time, the three guys that got the most playing time at SS in Fresno were Ryan Rohlinger, Manny Burriss, and Angel Berroa.* Burriss already has 499 PA’s in the majors, with a line of .264/.329/.302. Ouch. He’s below average defensively, and probably is better as a second baseman. Essentially, Burriss is the definition of replacement level.
*Not only did Berroa play 26 games at short, but Tony Pena Jr. played 4 games. I’m not sure when Fresno became a graveyard for former Royals shortstops, but I don’t like it one bit.
Rohlinger is a different story. At 27 next season, he’s not young, but he hit well in half a season with Fresno last year. His line there stood at .311/.392/.477, which, according to minorleaguesplits.com, translates to a .266/.332/.392 line in San Francisco. Think Travis Ishikawa with the bat, playing shortstop. He projects as a slightly below average fielder in the majors, especially as a shortstop. Rohlinger isn’t ideal, but he’s better than replacement level and at the major league minimum, the Giants really have nothing to lose.
I would recommend carrying Rohlinger on the 25-man roster and signing Renteria for a single year. Renteria offers a .320 wOBA bat, and if he gets injured (excuse me; when he gets injured), Rohlinger can step in and hit something like a .310 wOBA. Combined, they shouldn’t cost more than $6mil, and will offer 1.5-2 WAR.
Losing Uribe to the Dodgers hurts, but I think Colletti overpaid, and I think the Giants made the right call not matching the offer. Give Renteria something like 1 yr/$5-$7mil, have Rohlinger ready in the wings for when Renteria goes down, and save some money and maintain flexibility for the future.
Oh, also, avoid Derek Jeter at all costs. Come on Sabean, I know you want to, but don’t do it. Please. For all of us.
Man that stinks.
Alright, now that I got that out of my system, let’s get down to real analysis. To repeat a tweet from Andrew Baggarly, I can’t blame the Giants for not matching the Dodgers’ offer, and I can’t blame Uribe for taking it. Three years was too much for me, even though $7mil per is not outlandish. I would have been ok with a Renteria-esque 2 yr/$9mil deal, but apparently Uribe wanted that third year. I simply cannot endorse the third year based on his stats this season. As I detailed last post, Uribe’s LD% is declining, his FB% is increasing, he’s had leg issues the entire time he’s been with the Giants, and much of his value last season was based on a career-high walk percentage coupled with a strikeout percentage that was his lowest since 2005. The Bill James 2011 projection has him for a .253/.307/.434 line next year. Those are good numbers for a shortstop, and would make him well worth his contract. But I just don’t see those numbers carrying for three years.
The Giants’ other options are thin. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is already off the market, as the Twins won the right to negotiate with him for his services. If those two sides come to a deal, there’s an off chance J.J. Hardy will become available. As I detailed last time, Hardy projects for a .331 wOBA next year, which coupled with an excellent glove makes him a 3.5 WAR player. If he could be had in a trade for, say, a B- prospect or a couple of C’s (think Thomas Neal or Charlie Culberson) then I say pull the trigger. He’ll probably cost around $7mil this season, and is a free agent after next season.
The remaining free-agents don’t leave much to be desired either. Miguel Tejada is available, but he doesn’t exactly inspire delusions of grandeur. He has the range of the Venus de Milo at short, so much so that he played over 800 innings at third this year for two teams. He wasn’t much better there, scoring a -9.9 UZR/150. In his last three seasons at short (3222 innings) he’s cost -2.3 runs, and only figures to get worse.
On the plus side, he does offer the flexibility of both positions, if Panda doesn’t get himself in gear. With the bat, he projects a .279/.324/.415 line, good for a .320 wOBA. Basically, he projects as an average bat and a below average glove. I can’t imagine Miggy getting more than a one-year contract anywhere, probably in the $5-$7mil range.
The Giants could offer a contract to Edgar Renteria again. Last year, he hit .276/.332/.374 in 72 games, and the Bill James projections have him doing essentially that again (.274/.333/.381) in 200 more plate appearances. With the glove, DRS had him at -2 runs last year, while UZR had him at +6.5 UZR/150. I would imagine, at the age of 33 with bad hamstrings already that he can be average at best at shortstop. I could see Renteria, over a full season, being worth about 1.5-2 WAR: league average. He will probably be available for 1yr/$5mil.
Of course, I’ve avoided the elephant in the room thus far: Derek Jeter. Let me preface this paragraph by saying that I don’t anticipate, in a million years, the Yankees and Jeter not getting a deal done. But as we stand now, the two sides seem to be pretty far apart. Jeter wants 4-5 years, somewhere in the $23mil per range. The Yankees have offered 3 years, $15 mil per. Should the two sides not make much movement, can the Giants move in there with a 4 year/$19mil per deal and snap Jeter up? More importantly, should they?
In a word, no. Jeter is coming off a career-worst year at the plate, hitting .270/.340/.370 and leading the majors in outs made. Adjusting for a move to the inferior league and a minor bounce-back, one can anticipate a line of about .295/.365/.410 next season, which would be a .344 wOBA. Jeter scored right with his career average in UZR/150 last season, at -5.1. Add it all together, and you’re looking at something like 3.5-4 WAR. That’s pretty close to $19mil in value, but it would be ridiculous to assume he could maintain that value through his age 41 season. I see the probability of the Giants getting Rowanded with this deal if they decide to stick their noses in this mess.
The farm system doesn’t have much promise either. As mentioned last time, the three guys that got the most playing time at SS in Fresno were Ryan Rohlinger, Manny Burriss, and Angel Berroa.* Burriss already has 499 PA’s in the majors, with a line of .264/.329/.302. Ouch. He’s below average defensively, and probably is better as a second baseman. Essentially, Burriss is the definition of replacement level.
*Not only did Berroa play 26 games at short, but Tony Pena Jr. played 4 games. I’m not sure when Fresno became a graveyard for former Royals shortstops, but I don’t like it one bit.
Rohlinger is a different story. At 27 next season, he’s not young, but he hit well in half a season with Fresno last year. His line there stood at .311/.392/.477, which, according to minorleaguesplits.com, translates to a .266/.332/.392 line in San Francisco. Think Travis Ishikawa with the bat, playing shortstop. He projects as a slightly below average fielder in the majors, especially as a shortstop. Rohlinger isn’t ideal, but he’s better than replacement level and at the major league minimum, the Giants really have nothing to lose.
I would recommend carrying Rohlinger on the 25-man roster and signing Renteria for a single year. Renteria offers a .320 wOBA bat, and if he gets injured (excuse me; when he gets injured), Rohlinger can step in and hit something like a .310 wOBA. Combined, they shouldn’t cost more than $6mil, and will offer 1.5-2 WAR.
Losing Uribe to the Dodgers hurts, but I think Colletti overpaid, and I think the Giants made the right call not matching the offer. Give Renteria something like 1 yr/$5-$7mil, have Rohlinger ready in the wings for when Renteria goes down, and save some money and maintain flexibility for the future.
Oh, also, avoid Derek Jeter at all costs. Come on Sabean, I know you want to, but don’t do it. Please. For all of us.
18 November 2010
Hot Stove League: World Champions Edition
My final piece of 2010 Giants World Series Champions memorabilia came in the mail yesterday, so you know what that means: Hot Stove time!
Decisions, decisions. The Giants have a few tough ones to make, the most pressing of those being: who plays SS next season? Brian Sabean has apparently already reached out to Juan Uribe about the possibility of coming back, and with such a weak FA class this year, he’s probably the best option.
Uribe had quite the breakout year, if you can call it that, in 2010 at the age of 30. He posted a WAR (FanGraphs version) of 3.2, which is his highest score since 2004 with the White Sox. That puts his value at about $13 million dollars for the season. Since he signed a $3.25mil contract at the beginning of the season, that’s almost $10mil in surplus value: quite the bargain. One suspects he won’t come so cheaply this season. Uribe will almost certainly be looking for a 2/3 year contract, and I would guess he could land $6-$8mil a year. Taking the upper threshold, that’s $21mil right there, meaning he would have to put up 5+ WAR to break even.
Is Uribe capable of that? Of course, that would only be 1.3 WAR per year, or a bit below average. I, however, have some doubts. Remember, next season is his age 31 year, so his contract would keep him signed through his age 32 year. He’s already showing some signs of aging: his line drive percentage is down 5% and his fly ball percentage is up 5%, and those fly balls are going to stop going over the fence and start landing in outfielder’s gloves as he gets older. He posted the highest walk percentage of his career, and the lowest strikeout percentage since 2005, and both of those are good signs. But chances are they’re aberrations: the 2011 Bill James Projections see his walk percentage and strikeout percentage returning to normal levels.
A look at Uribe’s top B-R.com similar players helps us look into Juan’s future a little bit. Uribe has a career line of .256/.300/.431, including a .266/.318/.464 line in 1006 PA’s with the Giants. Uribe’s number one comp through the age of 30 is Rico Petrocelli, a SS and 3B for the Boston Red Sox in the 60s and 70s. I don’t think it’s a great comp, but we can run with it. Petrocelli was a slightly above-average shortstop, just like Uribe, with a little bit of power, just like Uribe. By his age 30 season, he had been moved to 3B, where he was right at or a little below league average, and he hit .244/.333/.396, which was good for an exactly average 100 OPS+. Fangraphs has him for 2.9 WAR for the season, which is pretty darn close to Uribe’s 3.2 figure this year.
So what happened to Petrocelli? In his age 31 season, he posted a 110 OPS+, but his defense fell off a cliff, costing him 10 runs of value between 1973 and 1974. He scored a 2.7 WAR for his age 31 season, but in the two seasons following he posted a combined 0.1 WAR. For those three seasons he hit .245/.320/.359, good for an 88 OPS+, and was slightly below average defensively, giving back 4 runs over those three seasons.
Uribe’s second best comp is Dick McAuliffe, and this comparison gives a slight bit of hope. McAuliffe, like Petrocelli, was a utility infielder in the 60s and 70s. McAuliffe, according to Total Zone, was a worse fielder than Uribe, posting -2.3 dWAR through his age 30 season, compared to Uribe’s 4.2 dWAR. McAuliffe’s career batting line through age 30 was .253/.349/.413, and from his age 31 season in 1971 through the end of his career he hit .231/.320/.372. I really don’t like the McAuliffe comparison because he did one thing Uribe decidedly does not do: walk. McAuliffe’s career walk rate is 12.3%, more than twice Uribe’s rate at 5.6%. His career on-base percentage is 43 points higher than Uribe’s as well.
A more comparable and slightly better comparison is to Alex Gonzalez, the SS for the Blue Jays in the late 90s. Through his age 30 season, Gonzalez had a batting line of .243/.304/.394. He played above-average defense at short, racking up 2.0 dWAR through age 30, and he was a below average hitter, having a career OPS+ of 80 through 2003. Uribe has a career OPS+ of 85. And as for Gonzalez’s career after age 30? A .242/.289/.376 slash line, which comes out to a 73 OPS+. He was below average with the glove too, giving back 4 runs over 3 seasons. Overall, that comes out to a -0.6 WAR over 700+ PA’s; not what you’re looking for from your SS.
Looking at his comparables and seeing how the end of their careers worked out, it’s easy to see why some might be a bit hesitant to re-sign Uribe. Unfortunately for the Giants, there just isn’t much else out there. It’s an incredibly weak middle-infielder class this year, and with Brandon Crawford at least another year away (and probably ending up a good glove, no bat guy anyway) they don’t have any in-house candidates either. The three players with the most playing time at SS for Fresno were Emmanuel Burriss (we’ve seen that movie before), Ryan Rohlinger (an intriguing option, he had a .869 OPS last year and had a 9% walk rate), and…
Get ready for this…
Angel Berroa.
/shudder
So, yeah, with nothing better than perhaps a major league backup in Rohlinger, the Giants need to either re-sign Uribe or bring in someone from outside the organization. I have two proposals.
One, J.J. Hardy. Hardy hit .268/.320/.394 for the Twins this year, and rated an 8.1 by UZR, which is excellent. He comes bringing an A glove and a B- bat, which is good enough for me, considering he will probably be cheaper than Uribe. His depressed offensive numbers hide some unluckiness; his HR/FB ration was the lowest of his career this year, even though his LD% returned to the area it was when he was hitting 25 HRs a year. The 2011 Bill James Projections have his good for a .331 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ next season, which, coupled with a 6-8 plus run glove, gives him a WAR of around 3-3.5. He’s 3 years younger than Uribe as well. The only problem is the Twins are unlikely to non-tender him, unless they get to bid on the next person on my list.
The other viable option for the Giants is quite intriguing: 26-year-old Chiba Lotte Marines SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He’s due to get posted by the Marines in the next week or so, and he’s a very intriguing option. He had a fantastic season in the Nippon Professional League this year, hitting .346/.423/.482. He’s got great contact skills, and became the first NPB Pacific League player since Ichiro to eclipse the 200-hit mark in a season (the NPB plays a 144-game season). His glove profiles as fringe-average to below average, and he has a weak arm, but with a relatively low posting price he’s definitely worth the gamble. The Cardinals, Mariners, and Dodgers are said to be interested in him as well, so we’ll just have to sit back and see what happens.
I project Nishioka to be an average major leaguer. His “isolated walk” rate (OBP-AVG) is .077, which is quite good, and while he doesn’t have home run power, especially in larger American stadiums, he should be good for 30 or so doubles and 5-10 triples a year. I imagine something along the lines of a .335-.340 wOBA, a -5 glove, and good baserunning, making him a 2-3 WAR player. He should be worth the roughly $10mil it will cost to negotiate and sign him.*
*I can’t read the name Tsuyoshi without thinking of defensive whiz Tsuyoshi Shinjo, a very obscure outfielder on the Giants’ 2002 team. Giants fans have for years lamented Dusty Baker’s decision to start Kenny Lofton in center instead of Shinjo in games played at Angel’s Stadium, when switching the two would have been obviously better. Shinjo, in 891 innings that year, was worth 12 runs defensively. Lofton was worth 5 runs in 300 more innings, and would be exactly league average from 2000 to 2007, when he retired.
Man it was nice to exorcise those demons.
In the end, Uribe is probably the best option out there. It might cost the Giants a Renteria-like contract (2 yr, $18mil), but there really isn’t anyone else. If Hardy gets non-tendered, or can be traded for on the cheap, I would go there, but there really isn’t a whole lot of difference between Hardy and Uribe. Nishioka’s fascinating, but the glove profiles more as a second baseman and could really depress his value to the Giants. If I have to spend the next two years watching Uribe take massive hacks at sliders in the dirt, well, hey, it’s better than watching Brian Bocock, right?
05 November 2010
The 2011 Giants Payroll
It’s been mere days since the Giants wrapped up their first World Series Championship since 1954, and already GM Brian Sabean is diving headlong into the Hot Stove season. In 2010, the Giants already had their highest payroll figure ever, at just over $96 million dollars. The question now is, how much higher can we expect it to go? How much higher can the owners afford to let it go?
The Giants have eight players that are arbitration eligible for 2010, as well as decisions to be made about Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Juan Uribe. The Giants have already declined Edgar Renteria’s $10.5 million dollar option for 2011, and I agree with the move. Renteria is old and fragile, and would be hard pressed to put up $10.5 million worth of production.
So, as of now, the Giants are committed to around $79 million in payroll for next year. I expect them to get a deal done with Huff and Uribe at least. Let’s use the figure that Fangraphs contributor and blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron crowd sourced last week from Fangraphs readers. They figured Huff would get a two year deal worth $8mil a year. Uribe made $3.25mil this season, and, after posting a 2.0 WAR season, is due for a slight raise. Let’s say they sign him for 2 years, $6mil per. That puts them at $93 million.
Now, the eight players that are arbitration eligible are Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Chris Ray, and Javier Lopez. Let’s break this down player by player:
Definitely getting tendered: Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Javier Lopez
These guys will all definitely get offered contracts, and I agree with that. All are solid players; Torres and Ross figure to start next year, Sanchez is the number three guy in the rotation, Casilla had 56 K’s in 55 innings, and Lopez had a transcendent postseason to go along with a solid regular season.
Might get tendered: Mike Fontenot, Ramon Ramirez
I would disagree if either of these players were offered a contract. Fontenot can play three positions, but none of them well, and a slap-happy bat with nearly no pop. In 76 PA’s with the Giants, he slugged on .310, and in his last 680 PA’s he’s slugging .376. In 348.2 innings this year at second base, he cost the Cubs and Giants 6 runs. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. Meanwhile, Ramirez is a serviceable right-hander out of the pen, but I just don’t see a reason to keep him around.
Definitely shouldn’t get tendered: Chris Ray
He could go in the other category, as he’s nearly identical to Ramirez. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. An xFIP of 5.30 doesn’t help his case, nor does a 5.01 K/9 rate, especially when contrasted with his BB/9 rate of 4.04.
Ideally, the Giants would offer arbitration to Torres, Sanchez, Casilla, Ross, and Lopez, and let’s say they get raises of a combined $7.5mil. That puts us at approximately $100.5 million dollars so far for 2011. Would ownership be willing to push that to $120mil-plus in order to go after Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth? I think they should, because a heavy-hitting outfielder is exactly what this team needs.*
*If the Giants decide to let Pat Burrell walk and go after Crawford or Werth (at a significantly higher cost), it is worth noting that, in 2010:
Pat Burrell, age 33: .262/.364/.509
Jayson Werth, age 31: .296/.388/.532
Carl Crawford, age 28: .307/.358/.495
If the Giants were to increase payroll to $120 million, that would represent a 20% increase in payroll from this year. That got me wondering: historically, what happens to a team’s payroll after winning the World Series? Intuitively, I would expect that it would go up. The team is more attractive to free agents, cash flow increases as season tickets are sold faster, enthusiasm from the fan base leads to more rash decisions, etc. But I decided to look back on the last ten years and see what the trends were.*
*I only went to 2000 because that was as much data as my contract and payroll source, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, had.
So, do payrolls typically increase? The easy answer is yes. Payroll has increased an average of 7% the year after winning the World Series over the last ten years. The worst offender were the 2006 Chicago White Sox, who, after ending their 88-year World Series drought the previous year, increased their payroll from $75.2mil to $102.8mil, a staggering 26% increase. In the last ten years, there have been three teams that actually cut payroll the season after they won it all. One is the 2004 Florida Marlins, to no one’s surprise. They cut payroll from $45.1mil in 2003, when they won the title, to $42.2mil in 2004.*
*Can you imagine a team winning a title with a $45.1 million payroll? Even after inflation, that’s like a team winning the title with a $53 million payroll today. For comparison, the A’s payroll was $58 million.
The other two times it happened last decade were actually by the same team. The Boston Red Sox, surprisingly enough, cut payroll after both of their Series wins in the 2000s. In 2005, they cut payroll 3% after ending the Curse, and after their second title in ’07 they cut payroll 7%.
So, a 20% increase in payroll is rare, but not unheard of. After winning it all in 2002, the Angels boosted payroll 21%, and the year before that the Diamondbacks raised payroll 16%. The Phillies raised payroll 13% after winning in 2008. However, I just don’t think it’s worth it to push payroll that high if they don’t have to. As I showed earlier, Pat Burrell offers nearly the same offensive skill set as Werth or Crawford for undoubtedly less money. Obviously, he isn’t in the same league as them defensively, but with Torres and Ross playing the other outfield positions, I think it matters little.
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