Trading Travis

The Giants aren’t expected to make too much of a splash the rest of the offseason, having lost Juan Uribe to the Dodgers (boooooo!) for 3yrs/$21mil, signing Miguel Tejada (just like I said they would) for 1yr/$6.5mil, and resigning Pat Burrell for 1yr/$1mil and Aubrey Huff for 2yrs/$22mil.

With that, the 25 man roster looks like this:

P: Affeldt, Bumgarner, Cain, Casilla, Lincecum, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, Runzler, Sanchez, Wilson, Zito

C: Posey, Whiteside

IF: Fontenot, Huff, Ishikawa, Sanchez, Sandoval, Tejada, DeRosa

OF: Burrell, Ross, Rowand, Schierholtz, Torres

Ah, except for one thing: that’s 26 names. There are a number of things the Giants could do here: not carry 12 pitchers, trade Ramirez/Runzler/Casilla for a backup catcher and release Whiteside, etc. Plus that list doesn’t even include uber-prospect Brandon Belt or blog favorite Ryan Rohlinger. It’s clear that the Giants need to drop a player or two from the active roster.

But who’s the most expendable Giant? Nate Schierholtz has an argument. A career defensive replacement, he’s got just a .306 wOBA in his career.* His career UZR/150 is +19.0, which is really quite fantastic. I think Schierholtz should stay in the role he assumed during the season, coming into the game in the 6th or 7th inning as a defensive replacement for Burrell. Hey, they call him Pat the Bat and not Pat the Glove for a reason.

*I realize that I use a lot of advanced statistics in my posts and I don’t explain what they mean. My apologies. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average, and it’s a stat similar to OPS, but it values on-base percentage higher because OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG. It’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the limit of my understanding. To read a fantastic description, here’s the brilliant Dave Cameron explaining it in greater detail.

Mike Fontenot has a case too, but there’s a reason the front office decided to tender him last week. He’s a valuable utility infielder who can play second, short, and third. There’s only one problem: he’s not any good at any of them. In only 152.2 innings in the field, mostly at second, he cost the Giants 2.9 runs. Sure, it’s a tine sample size, but that doesn’t make me feel better about it. He’ll be backing up the ever-fragile Freddy Sanchez at second, in addition to making some starts at short, should Miggy need a rest. He’ll stick around; there was no reason to tender him a contract if he wasn’t.

I think the most replaceable Giant has to be Travis Ishikawa. They have Huff to start and hold the position down until management decided Belt is ready, plus they already have guys on the roster in Sandoval and DeRosa who can play the position serviceably if Huff goes down with an injury or needs a day off.

Ish was drafted in the 21st round in 2002 and debuted in April, 2006. He came up for good in 2008, and in his career he boasts a batting line of .267/.324/.408 in 665 PA’s. There’s reason to believe he’s improving, too. His LineDrive% has increased every year of his career, and his HR/FB ratio looks to be due for some evening out.

Of course, Ish’s value has always come from his glove. UZR has him worth +13.5 runs per 150 games, which is quite good. In fact, that would qualify him as the best defensive 1B in the league, just ahead of Daric Barton.* Using Colin Wyers’ handy-dandy WAR calculator, Ishikawa projects to approximately a 1.2 WAR player over a full season, and that’s without factoring in any projected improvement. 1.2 WAR is worth roughly $6mil on the open market, and Ish is making basically league minimum. That’s a surplus value of over $5.5mil.

*Although third in the league is Aubrey Huff, at +6.7 runs. Maybe UZR does need a retooling after all.

Would Ish improve, given one extra year of development and the shot at a starting job somewhere else? Bill James thinks so, and I would tend to agree. James’ 2011 projections have Ish scoring a .336 wOBA next season, with a line of .268/.336/.432. I think that might be a tad optimistic, but based on Ish’s improving LD% and continuing to cut his K%, I could see him putting up something in the .325-.330 range. Couple that with his usual stellar defense and 650 PA’s from a complete season, and Ish projects somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 WAR, or worth between $8mil and $10mil.

So who are the Giants’ prospective trade partners? Ten teams had first baseman that registered less than 2.0 WAR last year: the Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Indians, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Rays, and the Blue Jays. Eliminating the two teams in division, that’s eight teams with a big need for a 1B worth league average. In addition, four teams had first basemen that cost them more than ten runs in the field: the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles. There's only one team that lands on both lists. Incredibly, the Orioles’ first baseman were both far below average at the bat (83 wRC+*) and in the field (-12.2 UZR).

*wRC+ is a version of wOBA, scaled with 100 exactly league average. Each point above 100 represents a 1% improvement, and each point below represents a 1% decline. So a 95 wRC+ is 5% below league average.

The Orioles don’t have a bad farm system either, ranking 11th in the Beyond the Box Score rankings before the season. There are several intriguing options for an Ishikawa trade. I imagine we could get a B- or a couple C prospects in return. The players don’t really much matter, perhaps someone like Matt Angle (OF, .260/.338/.303 at AAA, age 25) or Jerome Hoes (2B, .275/.372/.365 in A+, age 24 in January) would do.

The bottom line is that Travis Ishikawa could be a valuable member of a major league team if given the chance to start regularly. That opportunity isn’t going to come with the Giants, and I think both parties could gain from exploring the trade market.

It’s been a good run, Ish. It’s probably better for both of us if we just move on. It’s not you, it’s us.

The 2011 Giants Payroll

It’s been mere days since the Giants wrapped up their first World Series Championship since 1954, and already GM Brian Sabean is diving headlong into the Hot Stove season. In 2010, the Giants already had their highest payroll figure ever, at just over $96 million dollars. The question now is, how much higher can we expect it to go? How much higher can the owners afford to let it go?

The Giants have eight players that are arbitration eligible for 2010, as well as decisions to be made about Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Juan Uribe. The Giants have already declined Edgar Renteria’s $10.5 million dollar option for 2011, and I agree with the move. Renteria is old and fragile, and would be hard pressed to put up $10.5 million worth of production.

So, as of now, the Giants are committed to around $79 million in payroll for next year. I expect them to get a deal done with Huff and Uribe at least. Let’s use the figure that Fangraphs contributor and blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron crowd sourced last week from Fangraphs readers. They figured Huff would get a two year deal worth $8mil a year. Uribe made $3.25mil this season, and, after posting a 2.0 WAR season, is due for a slight raise. Let’s say they sign him for 2 years, $6mil per. That puts them at $93 million.

Now, the eight players that are arbitration eligible are Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Chris Ray, and Javier Lopez. Let’s break this down player by player:

Definitely getting tendered: Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Javier Lopez

These guys will all definitely get offered contracts, and I agree with that. All are solid players; Torres and Ross figure to start next year, Sanchez is the number three guy in the rotation, Casilla had 56 K’s in 55 innings, and Lopez had a transcendent postseason to go along with a solid regular season.

Might get tendered: Mike Fontenot, Ramon Ramirez

I would disagree if either of these players were offered a contract. Fontenot can play three positions, but none of them well, and a slap-happy bat with nearly no pop. In 76 PA’s with the Giants, he slugged on .310, and in his last 680 PA’s he’s slugging .376. In 348.2 innings this year at second base, he cost the Cubs and Giants 6 runs. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. Meanwhile, Ramirez is a serviceable right-hander out of the pen, but I just don’t see a reason to keep him around.

Definitely shouldn’t get tendered: Chris Ray

He could go in the other category, as he’s nearly identical to Ramirez. I just don’t see a good reason to bring him back. An xFIP of 5.30 doesn’t help his case, nor does a 5.01 K/9 rate, especially when contrasted with his BB/9 rate of 4.04.

Ideally, the Giants would offer arbitration to Torres, Sanchez, Casilla, Ross, and Lopez, and let’s say they get raises of a combined $7.5mil. That puts us at approximately $100.5 million dollars so far for 2011. Would ownership be willing to push that to $120mil-plus in order to go after Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth? I think they should, because a heavy-hitting outfielder is exactly what this team needs.*

*If the Giants decide to let Pat Burrell walk and go after Crawford or Werth (at a significantly higher cost), it is worth noting that, in 2010:

Pat Burrell, age 33: .262/.364/.509

Jayson Werth, age 31: .296/.388/.532

Carl Crawford, age 28: .307/.358/.495

If the Giants were to increase payroll to $120 million, that would represent a 20% increase in payroll from this year. That got me wondering: historically, what happens to a team’s payroll after winning the World Series? Intuitively, I would expect that it would go up. The team is more attractive to free agents, cash flow increases as season tickets are sold faster, enthusiasm from the fan base leads to more rash decisions, etc. But I decided to look back on the last ten years and see what the trends were.*

*I only went to 2000 because that was as much data as my contract and payroll source, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, had.

So, do payrolls typically increase? The easy answer is yes. Payroll has increased an average of 7% the year after winning the World Series over the last ten years. The worst offender were the 2006 Chicago White Sox, who, after ending their 88-year World Series drought the previous year, increased their payroll from $75.2mil to $102.8mil, a staggering 26% increase. In the last ten years, there have been three teams that actually cut payroll the season after they won it all. One is the 2004 Florida Marlins, to no one’s surprise. They cut payroll from $45.1mil in 2003, when they won the title, to $42.2mil in 2004.*

*Can you imagine a team winning a title with a $45.1 million payroll? Even after inflation, that’s like a team winning the title with a $53 million payroll today. For comparison, the A’s payroll was $58 million.

The other two times it happened last decade were actually by the same team. The Boston Red Sox, surprisingly enough, cut payroll after both of their Series wins in the 2000s. In 2005, they cut payroll 3% after ending the Curse, and after their second title in ’07 they cut payroll 7%.

So, a 20% increase in payroll is rare, but not unheard of. After winning it all in 2002, the Angels boosted payroll 21%, and the year before that the Diamondbacks raised payroll 16%. The Phillies raised payroll 13% after winning in 2008. However, I just don’t think it’s worth it to push payroll that high if they don’t have to. As I showed earlier, Pat Burrell offers nearly the same offensive skill set as Werth or Crawford for undoubtedly less money. Obviously, he isn’t in the same league as them defensively, but with Torres and Ross playing the other outfield positions, I think it matters little.

NLDS: A WPA Review

As Game 3 of the NLCS rages on, I wanted to take a look back on that roller-coaster division series and analyze it using the best stats I know that can numerically illustrate the up-and-down nature of each game. Therefore, I looked at both WPA (win percentage added) and LI (Leverage Index) to rate the players and the moments of each game.

Quickly, WPA uses data from years and years of game to calculate the winning probability of a team before and after a certain event, and then finds the difference. For example, when Rick Ankiel hit that titanic homerun off of Ramon Ramirez in the 11^th inning of Game 2, the Braves went from a 44% chance of winning to an 82% chance, so Ankiel is credited with .380 win percentage added, and vice versa for Ramirez. In this way, batters or pitchers who come through in a big spot are rewarded for their “clutchiness” (or not, if they flop).

Leverage Index is a measurement of the “pressure” of a given situation. 1.0 is average, so a score over one is above-average pressure, and below one is below average. For my purposes, this stat is particularly useful for illustrating exactly how important a specific play is in the course of the game.

Alright, let’s get to the games:

Game One: Giants win 1-0, Giants lead series 1-0

Player of the Game: Tim Lincecum, +0.754 WPA

Well, that should have been obvious. Lincecum went for a complete game, two-hitter with 14 strikeouts. Plenty has already been written about this game already, so I’ll just add this: I have an uncle who is about as hard-core of a Phillies fan as there is. He texted my dad after Lincecum’s game and told him that Timmy’s performance impressed him much more than Roy Halladay’s no-hitter the night before.

Goat of the Game: Freddy Sanchez, -0.166 WPA

Sanchez went 0-4, grounded into a double play in the first, grounded to the pitcher in the 3^rd that got Cody Ross tagged out in a rundown between third base and home, ground out to second in the 5^th, and ground out to first to lead off the 8^th. Not a whole lot to say about this game for Freddy, except that he saw a grand total of 8 pitches in four at-bats. Not a good day for him.

Play of the Game: Cody Ross singles to left, Posey scores (4^th inning)

This play would amount to the only run of the game, and was worth .13 WPA all by itself. This play, of course, followed the controversial call at second base on a Posey steal (he hadn’t stolen a base all season). It was obvious upon replay that Posey was out by approximately a foot at second, and of course that mars the game. In conjunction with the other missed calls in the Division Series, I expect Major League Baseball to take another look at replay this winter.

That being said, I think Cody Ross played himself into a contract this series, and, especially, this postseason. He was, by WPA, the Giants’ second most important player (after Aubrey Huff) and he, of course, hit those three (so far) home runs in the NLCS. In fact, as I type this, he just hit a single to left with two outs to score Renteria, giving the Giants a 1-0 lead in Game 3. I fully expect Bochy to offer arbitration to Ross this winter, and to have him on as a 4^th outfielder for around $3-4 million. He’s certainly much better than Jose Guillen, can run the basepaths and play outfield (+9 DRS, +3.4 UZR/150).

Game 2: Braves win 5-4 in 11 innings, series tied 1-1

Player of the Game: Pat Burrell, +0.242 WPA

Speaking of players that deserve another contract, how about Pat Burrell? The Bay Area native put up 2.5 fWAR this season after signing a minor-league deal May 29^th. Want to hear the most shocking stat of the day? Guess how much value Burrell accumulated with his glove. Has to be a negative number right? I mean, he’s a self-described “water buffalo” in left field.

Well, you’d be wrong. According to FanGraphs, Burrell has a DRS score of +6 and an UZR score of +4.9. The things you learn.

Nearly all of his value this game derives from his first inning home run against Tommy Hanson, plating three runs and setting the Giants off on the right foot. Yeah, how’d that work out?

Goat of the Game: Buster Posey, -0.353 WPA

Seems wrong, right? I mean, the goat of the game has to be Sergio Romo, or Brian Wilson, or Ramon Ramirez, right? According to WPA, the second biggest play of the game was Posey’s double-play groundout to Troy Glaus (!!), which cost the Giants -0.33 WPA. Add in that he didn’t do much else for the rest of the game, while Ramirez racked up 0.14 WPA in the 10^th before giving up Rick Ankiel’s monster shot in the 11^th (0.38 WPA) to finish with only -0.154 WPA for the game.

Play of the Game: Rick Ankiel homers off of Ramon Ramirez, 11^th inning.

One of the few times I’ve ever shouted at my TV before the hitter actually had hit the ball. The pitch was only about halfway to the plate, and I was already shouting “NO!!” I mean, it was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, belt high. I could have hit that halfway to Berkeley.

Game Three: Giants win 3-2, Giants lead series 2-1

Player of the Game: Buster Posey, +0.413 WPA, and Jonathan Sanchez, +0.486

I did an offensive and pitching player of the game because starting pitchers get so many more opportunities to affect their WPA. I chose not to do it for Game 1 because no Giant really did anything of note on offense. Fair? No. Sue me.

Posey gets most of his WPA from one play that will be remembered for a long time: his groundball to second that Brooks Conrad promptly Bucknered into right field. That play garnered 0.36 WPA for Posey, and sent me into hysterics. I cannot remember a sporting event that sent from an extreme high, to an extreme low, and back to an extreme high in such a short time period. Looking at the Win Probability Chart is really quite amusing (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201010100.shtml#wpa).

About 2 years ago, Joe Posnanski wrote “I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring because, well, baseball is boring. But then, suddenly, it’s not. And that what makes it so great.” It has been a long time since I saw a final two innings that gripped me as much as the 8^th and 9^th of this game did.

Quickly, on Jonathan Sanchez: kid looked great. He struck out 11 in 7 and a third, 2 hits, a run, and (importantly) only one walk. I know Lincecum and Halladay took all the playoff-debut thunder, but Sanchez didn’t do too shabby himself in his first-ever playoff start.

Goat of the Game: Sergio Romo, -0.535 WPA

This one was easy. Romo gave up a 2-run home run to Eric Hinske after Bruce Bochy got out-managed by the old dog, Bobby Cox. Another scream-at-my-TV moment. That home run alone was worth -0.55 WPA, but Romo stayed in to get the next two batters out at +0.01 WPA each.

I feel bad for Romo, who had one of the better middle-relief seasons by a Giant in recent memory. He had a 2.18 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a K/9 over 10 with a BB/9 of less than 2 (hard to do, folks.) But he had such a terrible NLDS that I doubt Bochy will give him any work of note in the NLCS.

Play of the Game: Eric Hinske homers off of Sergio Romo, 8^th inning.

In the words of Forrest Gump: “Well, that’s all there is to say about that.”

Game 4: Giants win 3-2, Giants win series 3-1.

Player of the Game: Cody Ross, +0.262 WPA

Jesus Giants, you want to stop with the one-run games? You’re killing me over here.

Cody Ross broke up Derek Lowe’s no-hitter with a one-out solo shot in the fifth inning. That tied the game at 1 and was worth 0.17 WPA all by itself. He then managed another 0.11 WPA when he singled Buster Posey home with two down in the seventh to give the Giants a 3-2 lead, a score that would hold. Man, is there anything this guy doesn’t do*?

*So I was reading my Twitter feed right after Game 3 of the NLCS ended (hell yes Giants!) and I saw that three consecutive MLB posts called Cody Ross, ‘Babe.’ I found this to be clever and funny, and immediately texted some of my Giants-loving friends that joke. As it turns out, apparently Tim McCarver called him that during the game and I had somehow missed it. Tim McCarver? Not the funniest or most clever person in the world. Damn.

I’ve talked about Ross enough, so just one last thing: by WPA (as I said earlier), he was the Giant’s second most important hitter this series (after Huff). Some people just get hot at the right time, huh?

Goat of the Game: Aaron Rowand, -0.124 WPA

There was no real goat to this game, so I’ll pass over this quickly. Rowand’s strike-out against Johnny Venters in the 7th could have really hurt the Giants, but Cody Ross followed it up with his single to score Posey. No harm, no foul.

Play of the Game: This one’s an interesting one.

There are actually four plays that are tied with a 17% swing in Win Expectancy. First, Brian McCann’s home run off of Madison Bumgarner in the sixth broke a 1-1 tie. Cody Ross’s home run in the top of the sixth made it tied in the first place. Melky Cabrera’s ground out to 3^rd ended the game, and Juan Uribe reached on Troy Glaus’ error in the 7^th, tying the game at 2. To add on to that, the 5^th most important play, Brian Wilson striking out Omar Infante with one out in the ninth, had a Leverage Index score of 7.71! That means that at-bat was seven times as pressure-packed as an average at-bat. As this confusion indicates, this was a hard-fought game all the way through, and to name one play of the game wouldn’t be right.

Series Review

Well, that wasn’t good for my heart. Four consecutive games decided by one run. Home runs and blown saves and Cody Ross, oh my! But, in the end, the Giants advanced to the NLCS (and hold a 2-1 series lead!!!!) and all is right with the world. Some notable WPA figures:

Aubrey Huff: +0.278 WPA. He had a negative WPA in only one game, Game 1, and put up a huge 0.269 WPA effort in Game 3.

Buster Posey: +0.176 WPA. Good enough to tie him for third on the team (with Pat Burrell). Huge Games 1 and 3, but that double play ball in Game 2 killed him.

Pablo Sandoval: -0.167 WPA. And that was in only 2 games. Probably a good idea to keep him on the bench.

Andres Torres: -0.245 WPA. The worst score for a hitter. He didn’t have any downright awful games, but he only put up a positive score in one game (Game 1). He was benched for Game 3 of the NLCS, and that’s probably a good decision, because he’s definitely slumping.

Brian Wilson: +0.358 WPA. Blew a save in Game 2, came back in huge spots in Games 3 and 4. Andrew Baggerly tweeted earlier today, “Brian Wilson should change his entrance music to Rolling Stone’s ‘Paint It Black.’” Needless to say, the blog heartily agrees.

Sergio Romo: -0.679 WPA. Oof. It was a rough series for Romo, who started the Braves’ rally in Game Two and finished it in Game Three. He’s a fantastic setup man though, and I’m sure he’ll be back as good as ever.

Well, all in all, that was quite a series. After many trials and tribulations, the Giants are back in the NLCS for the first time since 2002, and I’ve can’t help but think of Scott Spiezio. Dammit. Giant’s baseball: torture, indeed.