Hot Stove Talk: Post-Juan Edition

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Dodgers have signed Juan Uribe to a 3-year, $21 million contract.

Man that stinks.

Alright, now that I got that out of my system, let’s get down to real analysis. To repeat a tweet from Andrew Baggarly, I can’t blame the Giants for not matching the Dodgers’ offer, and I can’t blame Uribe for taking it. Three years was too much for me, even though $7mil per is not outlandish. I would have been ok with a Renteria-esque 2 yr/$9mil deal, but apparently Uribe wanted that third year. I simply cannot endorse the third year based on his stats this season. As I detailed last post, Uribe’s LD% is declining, his FB% is increasing, he’s had leg issues the entire time he’s been with the Giants, and much of his value last season was based on a career-high walk percentage coupled with a strikeout percentage that was his lowest since 2005. The Bill James 2011 projection has him for a .253/.307/.434 line next year. Those are good numbers for a shortstop, and would make him well worth his contract. But I just don’t see those numbers carrying for three years.

The Giants’ other options are thin. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is already off the market, as the Twins won the right to negotiate with him for his services. If those two sides come to a deal, there’s an off chance J.J. Hardy will become available. As I detailed last time, Hardy projects for a .331 wOBA next year, which coupled with an excellent glove makes him a 3.5 WAR player. If he could be had in a trade for, say, a B- prospect or a couple of C’s (think Thomas Neal or Charlie Culberson) then I say pull the trigger. He’ll probably cost around $7mil this season, and is a free agent after next season.

The remaining free-agents don’t leave much to be desired either. Miguel Tejada is available, but he doesn’t exactly inspire delusions of grandeur. He has the range of the Venus de Milo at short, so much so that he played over 800 innings at third this year for two teams. He wasn’t much better there, scoring a -9.9 UZR/150. In his last three seasons at short (3222 innings) he’s cost -2.3 runs, and only figures to get worse.

On the plus side, he does offer the flexibility of both positions, if Panda doesn’t get himself in gear. With the bat, he projects a .279/.324/.415 line, good for a .320 wOBA. Basically, he projects as an average bat and a below average glove. I can’t imagine Miggy getting more than a one-year contract anywhere, probably in the $5-$7mil range.

The Giants could offer a contract to Edgar Renteria again. Last year, he hit .276/.332/.374 in 72 games, and the Bill James projections have him doing essentially that again (.274/.333/.381) in 200 more plate appearances. With the glove, DRS had him at -2 runs last year, while UZR had him at +6.5 UZR/150. I would imagine, at the age of 33 with bad hamstrings already that he can be average at best at shortstop. I could see Renteria, over a full season, being worth about 1.5-2 WAR: league average. He will probably be available for 1yr/$5mil.

Of course, I’ve avoided the elephant in the room thus far: Derek Jeter. Let me preface this paragraph by saying that I don’t anticipate, in a million years, the Yankees and Jeter not getting a deal done. But as we stand now, the two sides seem to be pretty far apart. Jeter wants 4-5 years, somewhere in the $23mil per range. The Yankees have offered 3 years, $15 mil per. Should the two sides not make much movement, can the Giants move in there with a 4 year/$19mil per deal and snap Jeter up? More importantly, should they?

In a word, no. Jeter is coming off a career-worst year at the plate, hitting .270/.340/.370 and leading the majors in outs made. Adjusting for a move to the inferior league and a minor bounce-back, one can anticipate a line of about .295/.365/.410 next season, which would be a .344 wOBA. Jeter scored right with his career average in UZR/150 last season, at -5.1. Add it all together, and you’re looking at something like 3.5-4 WAR. That’s pretty close to $19mil in value, but it would be ridiculous to assume he could maintain that value through his age 41 season. I see the probability of the Giants getting Rowanded with this deal if they decide to stick their noses in this mess.

The farm system doesn’t have much promise either. As mentioned last time, the three guys that got the most playing time at SS in Fresno were Ryan Rohlinger, Manny Burriss, and Angel Berroa.* Burriss already has 499 PA’s in the majors, with a line of .264/.329/.302. Ouch. He’s below average defensively, and probably is better as a second baseman. Essentially, Burriss is the definition of replacement level.

*Not only did Berroa play 26 games at short, but Tony Pena Jr. played 4 games. I’m not sure when Fresno became a graveyard for former Royals shortstops, but I don’t like it one bit.

Rohlinger is a different story. At 27 next season, he’s not young, but he hit well in half a season with Fresno last year. His line there stood at .311/.392/.477, which, according to minorleaguesplits.com, translates to a .266/.332/.392 line in San Francisco. Think Travis Ishikawa with the bat, playing shortstop. He projects as a slightly below average fielder in the majors, especially as a shortstop. Rohlinger isn’t ideal, but he’s better than replacement level and at the major league minimum, the Giants really have nothing to lose.

I would recommend carrying Rohlinger on the 25-man roster and signing Renteria for a single year. Renteria offers a .320 wOBA bat, and if he gets injured (excuse me; when he gets injured), Rohlinger can step in and hit something like a .310 wOBA. Combined, they shouldn’t cost more than $6mil, and will offer 1.5-2 WAR.

Losing Uribe to the Dodgers hurts, but I think Colletti overpaid, and I think the Giants made the right call not matching the offer. Give Renteria something like 1 yr/$5-$7mil, have Rohlinger ready in the wings for when Renteria goes down, and save some money and maintain flexibility for the future.

Oh, also, avoid Derek Jeter at all costs. Come on Sabean, I know you want to, but don’t do it. Please. For all of us.

Hot Stove League: World Champions Edition

My final piece of 2010 Giants World Series Champions memorabilia came in the mail yesterday, so you know what that means: Hot Stove time!

Decisions, decisions. The Giants have a few tough ones to make, the most pressing of those being: who plays SS next season? Brian Sabean has apparently already reached out to Juan Uribe about the possibility of coming back, and with such a weak FA class this year, he’s probably the best option.

Uribe had quite the breakout year, if you can call it that, in 2010 at the age of 30. He posted a WAR (FanGraphs version) of 3.2, which is his highest score since 2004 with the White Sox. That puts his value at about $13 million dollars for the season. Since he signed a $3.25mil contract at the beginning of the season, that’s almost $10mil in surplus value: quite the bargain. One suspects he won’t come so cheaply this season. Uribe will almost certainly be looking for a 2/3 year contract, and I would guess he could land $6-$8mil a year. Taking the upper threshold, that’s $21mil right there, meaning he would have to put up 5+ WAR to break even.

Is Uribe capable of that? Of course, that would only be 1.3 WAR per year, or a bit below average. I, however, have some doubts. Remember, next season is his age 31 year, so his contract would keep him signed through his age 32 year. He’s already showing some signs of aging: his line drive percentage is down 5% and his fly ball percentage is up 5%, and those fly balls are going to stop going over the fence and start landing in outfielder’s gloves as he gets older. He posted the highest walk percentage of his career, and the lowest strikeout percentage since 2005, and both of those are good signs. But chances are they’re aberrations: the 2011 Bill James Projections see his walk percentage and strikeout percentage returning to normal levels.

A look at Uribe’s top B-R.com similar players helps us look into Juan’s future a little bit. Uribe has a career line of .256/.300/.431, including a .266/.318/.464 line in 1006 PA’s with the Giants. Uribe’s number one comp through the age of 30 is Rico Petrocelli, a SS and 3B for the Boston Red Sox in the 60s and 70s. I don’t think it’s a great comp, but we can run with it. Petrocelli was a slightly above-average shortstop, just like Uribe, with a little bit of power, just like Uribe. By his age 30 season, he had been moved to 3B, where he was right at or a little below league average, and he hit .244/.333/.396, which was good for an exactly average 100 OPS+. Fangraphs has him for 2.9 WAR for the season, which is pretty darn close to Uribe’s 3.2 figure this year.

So what happened to Petrocelli? In his age 31 season, he posted a 110 OPS+, but his defense fell off a cliff, costing him 10 runs of value between 1973 and 1974. He scored a 2.7 WAR for his age 31 season, but in the two seasons following he posted a combined 0.1 WAR. For those three seasons he hit .245/.320/.359, good for an 88 OPS+, and was slightly below average defensively, giving back 4 runs over those three seasons.

Uribe’s second best comp is Dick McAuliffe, and this comparison gives a slight bit of hope. McAuliffe, like Petrocelli, was a utility infielder in the 60s and 70s. McAuliffe, according to Total Zone, was a worse fielder than Uribe, posting -2.3 dWAR through his age 30 season, compared to Uribe’s 4.2 dWAR. McAuliffe’s career batting line through age 30 was .253/.349/.413, and from his age 31 season in 1971 through the end of his career he hit .231/.320/.372. I really don’t like the McAuliffe comparison because he did one thing Uribe decidedly does not do: walk. McAuliffe’s career walk rate is 12.3%, more than twice Uribe’s rate at 5.6%. His career on-base percentage is 43 points higher than Uribe’s as well.

A more comparable and slightly better comparison is to Alex Gonzalez, the SS for the Blue Jays in the late 90s. Through his age 30 season, Gonzalez had a batting line of .243/.304/.394. He played above-average defense at short, racking up 2.0 dWAR through age 30, and he was a below average hitter, having a career OPS+ of 80 through 2003. Uribe has a career OPS+ of 85. And as for Gonzalez’s career after age 30? A .242/.289/.376 slash line, which comes out to a 73 OPS+. He was below average with the glove too, giving back 4 runs over 3 seasons. Overall, that comes out to a -0.6 WAR over 700+ PA’s; not what you’re looking for from your SS.

Looking at his comparables and seeing how the end of their careers worked out, it’s easy to see why some might be a bit hesitant to re-sign Uribe. Unfortunately for the Giants, there just isn’t much else out there. It’s an incredibly weak middle-infielder class this year, and with Brandon Crawford at least another year away (and probably ending up a good glove, no bat guy anyway) they don’t have any in-house candidates either. The three players with the most playing time at SS for Fresno were Emmanuel Burriss (we’ve seen that movie before), Ryan Rohlinger (an intriguing option, he had a .869 OPS last year and had a 9% walk rate), and…

Get ready for this…

Angel Berroa.

/shudder

So, yeah, with nothing better than perhaps a major league backup in Rohlinger, the Giants need to either re-sign Uribe or bring in someone from outside the organization. I have two proposals.

One, J.J. Hardy. Hardy hit .268/.320/.394 for the Twins this year, and rated an 8.1 by UZR, which is excellent. He comes bringing an A glove and a B- bat, which is good enough for me, considering he will probably be cheaper than Uribe. His depressed offensive numbers hide some unluckiness; his HR/FB ration was the lowest of his career this year, even though his LD% returned to the area it was when he was hitting 25 HRs a year. The 2011 Bill James Projections have his good for a .331 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ next season, which, coupled with a 6-8 plus run glove, gives him a WAR of around 3-3.5. He’s 3 years younger than Uribe as well. The only problem is the Twins are unlikely to non-tender him, unless they get to bid on the next person on my list.

The other viable option for the Giants is quite intriguing: 26-year-old Chiba Lotte Marines SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He’s due to get posted by the Marines in the next week or so, and he’s a very intriguing option. He had a fantastic season in the Nippon Professional League this year, hitting .346/.423/.482. He’s got great contact skills, and became the first NPB Pacific League player since Ichiro to eclipse the 200-hit mark in a season (the NPB plays a 144-game season). His glove profiles as fringe-average to below average, and he has a weak arm, but with a relatively low posting price he’s definitely worth the gamble. The Cardinals, Mariners, and Dodgers are said to be interested in him as well, so we’ll just have to sit back and see what happens.

I project Nishioka to be an average major leaguer. His “isolated walk” rate (OBP-AVG) is .077, which is quite good, and while he doesn’t have home run power, especially in larger American stadiums, he should be good for 30 or so doubles and 5-10 triples a year. I imagine something along the lines of a .335-.340 wOBA, a -5 glove, and good baserunning, making him a 2-3 WAR player. He should be worth the roughly $10mil it will cost to negotiate and sign him.*

*I can’t read the name Tsuyoshi without thinking of defensive whiz Tsuyoshi Shinjo, a very obscure outfielder on the Giants’ 2002 team. Giants fans have for years lamented Dusty Baker’s decision to start Kenny Lofton in center instead of Shinjo in games played at Angel’s Stadium, when switching the two would have been obviously better. Shinjo, in 891 innings that year, was worth 12 runs defensively. Lofton was worth 5 runs in 300 more innings, and would be exactly league average from 2000 to 2007, when he retired.

Man it was nice to exorcise those demons.

In the end, Uribe is probably the best option out there. It might cost the Giants a Renteria-like contract (2 yr, $18mil), but there really isn’t anyone else. If Hardy gets non-tendered, or can be traded for on the cheap, I would go there, but there really isn’t a whole lot of difference between Hardy and Uribe. Nishioka’s fascinating, but the glove profiles more as a second baseman and could really depress his value to the Giants. If I have to spend the next two years watching Uribe take massive hacks at sliders in the dirt, well, hey, it’s better than watching Brian Bocock, right?