2011 Giants top prospects: top 20 pitchers

After posting my top 20 positional prospects for 2011 on Friday, here’s my list for top 20 pitching prospects.  Scouting pitchers is a lot different than scouting hitters because there are a lot more factors that come into play, and it is significantly harder to just look at a stat line, maybe read a few scouting reports, and form an opinion on someone.  And to top it all off, your favorite pitching prospect could go blow out his arm and we’d be back at square one (see: Jorge Bucardo).  This is my first year ranking the pitching prospects of the organization, so there’s likely to be some bumps and bruises along the way, but here goes.

20. Chris Heston, RHP (starter)

Heston was the Giants’ 12^th round pick in 2009 out of East Carolina University.  He’s 23 and he pitched in high-A this year, so he’s old for the level, but he performed pretty well, posting a 3.28 FIP in 151 innings with 7.81 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9.  At 6’4”, 185 lbs., he’s a big fella, but he seems like more of a pitch to contact kind of guy.  He could be a useful bullpen guy slash spot starter down the road, but I’d like to see what he can do in double A first.

19. Jake Dunning, RHP (reliever)

After being converted from a shortstop to a pitcher in March 2010, Dunning started this season as a starter before being converted to a reliever in late May.  In 76 innings at high-A San Jose, he struck out 8.41 batters per nine innings and walked 2.84.  According to scouting reports he has a fastball that clocks in the low to mid 90s with a slider and a changeup.  His ceiling is as a middle reliever in the mold of Santiago Casilla.

18. Jacob Dunnington, RHP (reliever)

Only 20 years old, Dunnington started the year in single-A Augusta before getting promoted to San Jose in early July.  He was pretty good in Augusta for 43 innings before dominating in San Jose, posting a K/9 rate over 12.  His walk rate is a bit high though, and that caused his K/BB ratio for the season to fall at exactly 2.0.  He’s very good at limiting the home runs, however, and he’s got a ceiling as either a set up guy or potentially a closer.  He should start next year back in San Jose, with a promotion to Richmond likely at some point during the season.

17. Brett Bochy, RHP (reliever)

This is probably an aggressive ranking for Bochy, but this guy is more than just organizational filler (and son of the big league manager).  A closer for Kansas last year before falling victim to Tommy John, he returned this season to put up big numbers for single-A Augusta.  He reminds me of Brian Wilson: closer for big-conference school who blows his arm out, gets drafted late on day two, and then returns to dominate as a reliever.  He put up a 12.23 K/9 rate and a 1.85 BB/9 rate, for an unreal 6.63 K/BB ratio.  Hopefully the organization is aggressive with Bochy and promotes him to double A next year.  I also would have liked to see him in the AFL this year.

16. Edwin Escobar, LHP (starter)

Escobar originally signed with the Rangers in 2009 for $350K out of Venezuela.  The Giants then traded for him last April.  This year Escobar started the season with Augusta, making four appearances (two starts) before being sent back to extended spring training.  He then made fourteen appearances (twelve starts) with the AZL Rookie team.  In Arizona he posted an 8.22 K/9 rate and a 3.33 BB/9 rate, good for a 3.37 FIP.  He’s only 19, so he has a lot of room to improve, but this ranking is really just a shot in the dark.  Next year will be an important one for him.

15. Seth Rosin, RHP (reliever)

Rosin, the Giants’ 4^th rounder in 2010, spent the season as the closer for single-A Augusta.  A prototypical closer type, reports have Rosin listed at either 6’5” or 6’6”, and between 235 and 250 lbs. – a big boy no matter how you slice it.  He comes at batters with a four-seamer in the 94-96 range, and two-seamer at about 92, and a changeup around 78-81.  He reported also throws a slider, but that pitch still needs work.  He pitched a full season in Augusta, and here’s what he has to show for it: 89 innings, 39 appearances (10 starts, although none since June 29), 93 K’s, 30 BB’s, 2.63 FIP.  He looks like a reliever going forward, and we should see him in San Jose next season.

14. Reinier Roibal, RHP (starter)

Roibal is a Cuban defector who signed with the Giants before the 2010 season.  In his first full season Roibal threw 63 1/3 innings, struck out 58, and walked 17.  He shows good command and an ability to miss some bats, although he doesn’t get superior strikeout numbers.  Still, a 2.95 FIP in low-A is encouraging.  He could use another season before it becomes apparent exactly what the Giants have in Roibal.

 13. Lorenzo Mendoza, RHP (starter)

Mendoza made 14 starts and pitched 73 innings in low-A Salem-Keizer this season.  Mendoza was attractive to me as a prospect for a couple of reasons: his age (this year was his age-19 season) and his K/BB ratio (4.25).  He should start next year in the Augusta rotation, and as a 20-year-old he’ll be one of the younger pitchers in that league.

12. Enmanuel de Jesus, LHP (starter)

De Jesus, who was born six days into 1994 (!!), was the number two starter for the Giants’ Dominican Summer League affiliate.  Even though only 17 years old, he posted a 2.36 FIP in 46 2/3 innings, striking out 59 and walking 20.  I’m actually probably underselling de Jesus here; there’s a good argument to be made that he’s in the top 7 or so pitching prospects in the system.  His high-ish walk rate is my one concern, but I expect to see him back in the DSL next year and competing at a similarly high level.

11. Demondre Arnold, RHP (starter/reliever)

Arnold was the Giants’ 25^th rounder this year out of a Georgia CC.  He’s only 19, and struck out 32 while only walking 8 in 26 2/3 innings in rookie ball.  He’s got a low-90s fastball with some projection, a low-80s changeup, and is reported working on a curveball.  He relieved this year but will get a chance to start next year, most likely at low-A Salem-Keizer.

10. Ryan Verdugo, LHP (starter)

Verdugo is one of the Giants’ few pitching prospects in the upper minors.  This was Verdugo’s first year being a full-time starter, and he performed admirably.  In 130 1/3 innings, he struck out 133 batters and walked 63.  He had a penchant for giving up the home run this season (14 of them) so his FIP isn’t great looking at 4.10, but overall I’m pretty pleased.  He also seemed to fade a bit down the stretch, probably as a result of the increased workload.  We’ll see him next year in Fresno.

9. Joan Gregorio, RHP (starter)

Gregorio pitched in the Arizona Rookie League this year after pitching in the DSL last season.  He really made some positive strides, foremost being a jump in his strikeout rate.  He possesses the ability to miss bats, only giving up 7.7 hits per nine innings, a very good rate.  A 2.88 FIP in Arizona is really fantastic, and at only 19 years of age, he’s a guy to be very excited about.  Scouting reports are hard to find, so I can’t report on his stuff, but I look forward to seeing him in Salem-Keizer next year.

8. Kendry Flores, RHP (starter)

Flores profiles as similar to Lorenzo Mendoza: 19-year-old right-handed starter in low A.  Flores had some decent stats as well, with 47 strikeouts and 14 walks in 48 innings.  He’s got a low-90s fastball, plus changeup, and slurvy breaking ball that could use some work.  We’ll see him joining Mendoza in the Augusta rotation next season.

7. Adalberto Mejia, LHP (starter)

Here’s a guy I’m genuinely excited to see when he comes stateside next year.  Mejia, 18 years old, pitched 76 innings this season in the DSL, racking up 71 strikeouts against only 8 walks.  That kind of command is nearly unmatched in the Giants’ system.  He reportedly throws his fastball somewhere between 87-92, has a good changeup, and is working on refining a slurve/curveball.  He and his 1.88 FIP will be coming to Arizona (Salem-Keizer?  Fingers crossed!) next season.  He also reportedly is pitching in the Arizona Instructional League this winter.

6. Mike Kickham, LHP (starter)

As a 22-year-old in single-A this year, Kickham threw 111 2/3 innings, struck out 103, and walked 37.  His 3.48 FIP looks pretty good, as well.  He’s ranked this high because he’s one of the high-floor, low-ceiling types that are always underrated, but very valuable to have.  He’s got a low-90s fastball, a slider, a 12-6 curveball, and is working on a changeup.  He should move fast next year; I predict he’ll start the year out in high-A, with a mid-season promotion to double-A.  He could be contributing to the big league club as soon as mid-2013. 

5. Clayton Blackburn, RHP (starter)

Blackburn was the Giants’ 16^th round pick this year out of an Oklahoma HS.  He’s a big boy at 6’3”, 220 lbs.  He signed early enough to pitch in the Arizona Rookie League this season, striking out 30 and walking only 3 in 33 1/3 innings.  He was ranked #4 on Baseball America’s top 20 AZL prospects end of the year roundup.  He throws a low-90s fastball and compliments it with a curveball and a changeup that could use some work.  The key word for Blackburn is projectability.  This guy could really break out next year and shoot up some prospect lists.  I expect to see him in Salem-Keizer next year, although a spot in Augusta isn’t out of the question.

4. Josh Osich, LHP (starter)

The Giants’ sixth rounder this year, Osich had some arm problems at the end of the college season and didn’t pitch professionally this summer.  He was considered a first-round talent before the injury, so drafting him in the sixth was a steal.  He had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2010 season, so he does have a history of arm trouble.  Osich throws a mid-90s fastball, a plus change, and had begun using his slider as a setup pitch for his fastball this season.  Hopefully, with an entire winter to rest and rehab his arm, we’ll see Osich is full season ball next year.

3. Heath Hembree, RHP (reliever)

Hembree is the premiere relief prospect in the Giants’ system, and should be ready to contribute as early as next season.  In stops in San Jose and Richmond, he struck out 13.2 batters per nine, walked 4.2 per nine, and only surrendered 6.1 hits per nine.  And that all together, and that says “closer of the future.”  Fun fact: in 24 1/3 innings in San Jose this season, Hembree stranded 97% of all base runners.  That’s obviously unsustainable, but that’s the kind of facts I like to share about relief prospects.  Hembree boasts a mid- to high-90s fastball, a “power slider” (per BA), and a changeup.  It shouldn’t be long before we see him taking the closing reins from Brian Wilson in the ninth inning in San Francisco.

2. Kyle Crick, RHP (starter)

Crick was the Giants’ supplemental round pick this season.  He signed relatively late and only threw seven professional innings this year, with poor results, but this guy has all the makings of a future ace or #2.  He reminds me a lot of Matt Cain: a big burly right-hander from a Southern high school.  He’s got an easy delivery, and arm problems shouldn’t ever be a problem.  He sits mid-90s with his fastball, he’s got a plus curveball, and is working on a slider and a changeup.  He’s only 18 years old, so he’ll probably be limited to short season ball next year, most likely in Salem-Keizer, but he’s got all the makings of the next Giants’ great pitching prospect.

1. Eric Surkamp, LHP (starter)

Surkamp suffered a hip injury last season, and going into this year no one was really sure what to expect.  He silenced all doubters by striking out 165 in 142 1/3 innings, while walking only 44 and giving up only 5 home runs.  He got called up to the big leagues on August 27, and he struggled in 26 2/3 big league innings.  Barring that setback, Surkamp will be ready to contribute to the big league squad as early as next spring.  He will be right in the middle of the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, and if he can remember how to strike out batters he could be one of the most valuable fifth starters in the league.  Surkamp has a high-80s/low-90s fastball, but he complements that with a plus curveball that just plain misses bats.  He also sports a solid changeup.  I expect that he will start the season in Fresno before earning a May call-up after a few Zito runsplosions. 

So there’s the Giants’ top 20 pitching prospects.  You might notice I left Jorge Bucardo off this list, he missed all year with an undisclosed shoulder injury.  We’ll see how he recovers and where he starts next year, but I didn’t feel comfortable ranking him in the top 20 without some kind of news about the injury and why it kept him out all season.

Feel free to leave me feedback, how you feel about this list, or anything that strikes your fancy.  Soon enough, I’ll be looking at the free agent market to target some players I think the Giants should be interested in.

Giants Top Prospects: Position Players

Quick programming note: I have begun a blog titled Slash and Dash with a few college friends of mine. On it, I will be writing about MLB and, when the mood strikes me, perhaps some college football and basketball. Not to fear, I will still be posting my Giants-related thoughts here. Without further ado, here are my top-20 prospects for 2011: the position players.

Now that the regular season is over, there are only two things to do: argue about which free agents to sign, and make prospect lists. I’ll get to the former in a few days, but here’s my shot at the latter. As you may recall, I did a top-20 position prospects last winter, with accompanying June update. This winter, we now feature pitchers! Last year I didn’t rank pitchers because I felt much less comfortable with the scouting side of prospecting, but a year down the line I feel comfortable enough to take a shot.

One note: I separated my prospect lists between pitchers and position players, because I feel like it’s a fairer way to evaluate them.

Two players who appeared on my list last year are now ineligible: Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. Belt had an up and down year, quite literally: after beginning the season as the starting first baseman, he was sent down in May for poor performance. He was brought back up in the beginning of June, before an injury sidelined him for a month. He returned from the injury in Fresno, and then was called up for the third and final time in August. All told, he got 212 plate appearances in Fresno and 160 in San Francisco. Crawford was brought up in response to the anemic play of Miguel Tejada and the injury to Mike Fontenot, and performed about as well as could be expected: great glove, awful bat. He’s headed to the Arizona Fall League to work on his hitting, and should compete for the starting job next spring.

On to the list:

20. Roger Kieschnick, OF (last year: 19)

Kieschnick hit .255/.307/.429 as a 24-year-old in double-A. He’s old for his level, but lost most of last season with a back injury. The injury sapped his power, which really started to show up at the end of the season. The most worrisome thing for me is his K/BB ratio at 121/34. A 7% BB-rate is ok, but a 24% K-rate is pretty damning. We’ll see him in Fresno next year, I imagine, and a September call-up isn’t out of the question. Time is running out for him, however.

19. Ryan Cavan, 2B (last year: 17)

Cavan hit .270/.352/.435 in high-A as a 24-year-old. He’s very old for his level, and suffered from the logjam at second base in the Giants’ system. He walks at an 11% rate, strikes out in only 16% of his plate appearances, and his .165 ISO isn’t terrible for a second baseman. Still, that line is good for only a 102 wRC+ in the hitting atmosphere of the California League, and for an average second baseman, that’s not great. We’ll see how he does in double-A next year.

18. Alberto Robles, INF (last year: NR)

Robles is an infielder for the Dominican Summer League Giants affiliate. He hit .344/.459/.399 in 230 plate appearances as a 20-year-old. He’s a tad old, but in two seasons in the DSL he had walk rates of 10.5% and 13.9%. He barely strikes out, and while he doesn’t hit for much power, he could definitely be a useful player in the majors. At 5’ 11”, 155 lbs., he also has a lot of room to fill out. He’s on the top of my sleepers list.

17. Cristian Paulino, 2B (last year: NR)

Paulino got the call-up to the Arizona Rookie League this year, and performed very well: .277/.379/.435 in 135 plate appearances, 16 walks against 17 strikeouts and 10 steals to only 1 CS. He’s only 19 years old, so he’s a tad young for the league, and he’s a pretty exciting prospect to keep an eye on. We’ll see if he gets the promotion to Salem-Keizer next year, but a 122 wRC+ seems to indicate that he’s ready.

16. Jesus Galindo, CF (last year: NR)

After two years in the DSL, Galindo got an aggressive promotion all the way to low-A Salem Keizer this year. As a 20-year-old, he performed admirably: .276/.353/.364, good for a 122 wRC+. A pretty severe drop in walk rate between 2010 and 2011 is slight cause for concern, and Galindo will be a guy to keep an eye on in full-season ball next year.

15. Brett Krill, RF (last year: NR)

Krill, drafted in the 25th round in 2010, played his first professional season in 2011, and the results were impressive: 125 wRC+, a triple slash line of .304/.350/.488, a .184 ISO. But there’s bad news too: he’s already 22, and his K/BB ratio was 44/14. He should get the promotion to full season ball next year, and we’ll see if this season was an age-related mirage, or if Krill’s the real deal.

14. Shawn Payne, OF (last year: NR)

Payne was drafted in the 35th round this year by the Giants, assigned to low-A Salem Keizer, and promptly hit .306/.431/.394 in 195 plate appearances, good for a 147 wRC+. Payne’s a deep sleeper in this system, and the hesitation is warranted: he’s already 21, and he’s showing very little power. But Payne could be a something like Emilio Bonifacio: good plate discipline, little power, decent defense. He’s a guy to watch next year, presumably in single-A Augusta.

13. Chuckie Jones, OF (last year: 4)

After an exciting debut season last year (132 wRC+ as a 17-year-old), Jones struggled mightily in his second professional season. At low-A Salem-Keizer he hit .218/.322/.315 in 146 plate appearances, good for a 84 wRC+. His walk rate stayed constant at 10%, but his strikeout rate to, at a frightening 32%. What scares me the most, however, was his drop in power, from a .182 ISO in 2010 to .097 this year. He may see a promotion to single-A Augusta next season, but I predict we’ll see him back in low-A. Jones has gone from top-flight prospect to interesting sleeper, so we’ll see how he does next year to turn it around.

12. Kelby Tomlinson, SS (last year: NR)

Tomlinson was the Giants’ 12th round pick this year out of Texas A&M. He was drafted as a good defensive shortstop with work to do with his bat, but he surprised everyone by hitting .357/.415/.543 in rookie ball. He was old for the league (age 21, he’s actually seven days younger than I am) but this result certainly was encouraging. He’ll hopefully move up to full season ball next year as the starter in Augusta, but we may see him in extended spring training before starting for Salem-Keizer instead.

11. Ricky Oropesa, 1B (last year: NR)

Oropesa was the Giants’ third round pick this year, and has yet to play a professional game. Oropesa is a one-tool prospect with out-of-this-world power. He slugged .710 in his final year in college, but also struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances. He profiles similarly to Chris Dominguez (who didn’t make this list). As a college draftee, I hope to see him in full-season ball to start the year next year.

10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B (last year: 9)

Gillaspie spent the season with Fresno, earning two separate call-ups to the big league club. He hit .297/.389/.453 (109 wRC+) in Fresno and .263/.333/.421 in 21 plate appearances with the Giants. He had basically the same season as media darling Brett Pill, except he walked a lot more, plays a more important defensive position, and is two years younger. I expect to see him as a bench guy next year.

9. Jarrett Parker, RF (last year: 14)

As a 22-year-old in high-A, he hit .253/.360/.397 in 571 plate appearances (102 wRC+). He walked 74 times, which is great, but he also struck out 144 times, which is not so great. Parker would be a very exciting prospect if only he hit for more power. As of right now, he looks like nothing better than a 4th or 5th outfielder in the Fred Lewis mold. A year in the challenging hitting environment of Richmond will do a lot to tell us what to expect.

8. Adam Duvall, 3B (last year: NR)

Duvall hit .258/.358/.527 in single-A Augusta (145 wRC+). He’s a bit old for single-A ball (age: 22) but he really raked this year, and I’m disappointed the Giants chose not to promote him midseason. His 22 home runs tied him for second most in the system with Tommy Joseph (Brett Pill hit 25). Next year we’ll see him manning the hot corner for San Jose, and in the California League hitting environment he could definitely start turning some heads.

7. Andrew Susac, C (last year: NR)

Susac was the Giants’ second round pick in 2011. He didn’t play an inning of professional ball this year, but I hope to see him in Augusta to start off the season. He was a draft eligible sophomore, so he’s younger than most college draftees. He’s got the defensive abilities to stay behind the dish, and to me he profiles as a Russell Martin-type player: low average, plus power, good defense. A broken hamate bone in his left hand caused him to drop to the Giants at slot 86, before the injury he was viewed as a first round talent.

6. Ehire Adrianza, SS (last year: 8)

Now we’re getting into the truly exciting prospects in the system. As a 21-year-old, Adrianza split time this season between Augusta and San Jose. He hit better than most expected him to, putting up a combined line of .273/.352/.434 in 430 plate appearances. He began the season injured, and then was sent to Augusta, where he struggled a bit while shaking off effects of the injury. After getting promoted to San Jose on June 29th, he hit to the tune of a 119 wRC+, including a .165 ISO. Were those numbers a California League-induced mirage? We’ll see next season, when Adrianza trades the friendly confines of San Jose for the hits-depressing environment in Richmond. He’s still on track to reach San Francisco in 2013.

5. Hector Sanchez, C (last year: 15)

Sanchez is the one prospect I’m most confused about. He started the year as an interesting sleeper prospect in high-A, then got promoted bizarrely straight to triple-A, then served as an emergency backstop in case either Whiteside or Stewart got injured, got 12 days of big league service time before September, then spent all of September with the big league club. He ended the season with 34 plate appearances in San Francisco, 168 in Fresno, and 228 in San Jose. His stats in San Jose are pretty impressive: .302/.338/.533, good for a 114 wRC+. His stats in Fresno are less impressive: only a 58 wRC+ while hitting .261/.315/.340. He was only 21 this season, and will probably start next year in triple-A Fresno.

4. Francisco Peguero, RF (last year: 2)

Peguero battled a knee injury to start the season, and as such only managed to get 372 plate appearances on the season. He managed a 109 wRC+ in double-A Richmond despite a 1.7% walk rate – yes, you read that right. Unless he starts walking some more, he’s going to struggle in the majors. His performance will depend almost entirely on his BABIP, and those “slap it on the ground and run like hell” guys tend not to last at the big league level. He’ll begin next year at triple-A, and I expect to see him in at least a September call-up.

3. Joe Panik, 2B/SS (last year: NR)

Panik was the Giants’ first round pick out of St. Johns. He signed quickly and immediately started the season with low-A Salem-Keizer, where he silenced all doubters with a .341/.401/.467 line, hitting for average, taking walks, and even exhibiting a bit of power. His K/BB ratio was downright fantastic at 25/28. He played every game at SS in Salem-Keizer, but I have him listed as a 2B/SS because the Giants see him as a likely 2B in the future. He’s headed to Scottsdale to play in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll most likely begin next year as the starting SS in San Jose.

2. Tommy Joseph, C (last year: 4)

Joseph hit .270/.317/.471 in San Jose in his age-19 season. The K/BB ratio isn’t particularly encouraging at 102/29, but he did hit 22 home runs and sported a .201 ISO, which is fantastic. As I noted in my late May revisit, Joseph had a .594 OPS through 183 plate appearances, and he really came on strong in the second half, posting a .921 OPS after the All-Star break. His strong second half, plus his young age, make him the second best hitting prospect in the system. The minor league evaluators at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America (you know, the professionals) both like Joseph as a sleeper top-100 candidate and a candidate for a national breakout next season. He should handle Richmond’s hitting environment just fine. His fielding had been a concern going into the season, but he appears to have what it takes to stay behind the dish, throwing out 37% of base runners this season.

1. Gary Brown, CF (last year: 5)

Gary Brown simply lit the Cal League on fire this year. The starting center fielder since Opening Day, he proceeded to hit .336/.407/.519, which comes out to a 140 wRC+. In addition, he stole 53 bases, played a great center field, and even drew 46 walks. His plate discipline was one of the question marks about him entering the season, and he proved doubters wrong with a K/BB ratio of 73/46, which is perfectly acceptable. He hit 34 doubles and 13 triples, and therefore hopefully won’t be hurt by the hitting environment in Richmond too much, which tends to seriously depress home runs. He will likely slot somewhere between 30 and 50 on the Baseball America top 100 list. Quite simply, he was stunning in his debut season, and all systems are go for him to be roaming the San Francisco outfield by 2013.

As a system, the Giants have a couple of top-flight positional prospects and a few interesting sleepers. This is not an elite system, by any means, but it is still in the rebuilding phase after the graduations of some elite talent in recent years. I would say it would slot somewhere between 15-20 amongst all franchises.

Them’s the hitters, pitchers to come Monday.