Giants Top Prospects: Position Players

Quick programming note: I have begun a blog titled Slash and Dash with a few college friends of mine. On it, I will be writing about MLB and, when the mood strikes me, perhaps some college football and basketball. Not to fear, I will still be posting my Giants-related thoughts here. Without further ado, here are my top-20 prospects for 2011: the position players.

Now that the regular season is over, there are only two things to do: argue about which free agents to sign, and make prospect lists. I’ll get to the former in a few days, but here’s my shot at the latter. As you may recall, I did a top-20 position prospects last winter, with accompanying June update. This winter, we now feature pitchers! Last year I didn’t rank pitchers because I felt much less comfortable with the scouting side of prospecting, but a year down the line I feel comfortable enough to take a shot.

One note: I separated my prospect lists between pitchers and position players, because I feel like it’s a fairer way to evaluate them.

Two players who appeared on my list last year are now ineligible: Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. Belt had an up and down year, quite literally: after beginning the season as the starting first baseman, he was sent down in May for poor performance. He was brought back up in the beginning of June, before an injury sidelined him for a month. He returned from the injury in Fresno, and then was called up for the third and final time in August. All told, he got 212 plate appearances in Fresno and 160 in San Francisco. Crawford was brought up in response to the anemic play of Miguel Tejada and the injury to Mike Fontenot, and performed about as well as could be expected: great glove, awful bat. He’s headed to the Arizona Fall League to work on his hitting, and should compete for the starting job next spring.

On to the list:

20. Roger Kieschnick, OF (last year: 19)

Kieschnick hit .255/.307/.429 as a 24-year-old in double-A. He’s old for his level, but lost most of last season with a back injury. The injury sapped his power, which really started to show up at the end of the season. The most worrisome thing for me is his K/BB ratio at 121/34. A 7% BB-rate is ok, but a 24% K-rate is pretty damning. We’ll see him in Fresno next year, I imagine, and a September call-up isn’t out of the question. Time is running out for him, however.

19. Ryan Cavan, 2B (last year: 17)

Cavan hit .270/.352/.435 in high-A as a 24-year-old. He’s very old for his level, and suffered from the logjam at second base in the Giants’ system. He walks at an 11% rate, strikes out in only 16% of his plate appearances, and his .165 ISO isn’t terrible for a second baseman. Still, that line is good for only a 102 wRC+ in the hitting atmosphere of the California League, and for an average second baseman, that’s not great. We’ll see how he does in double-A next year.

18. Alberto Robles, INF (last year: NR)

Robles is an infielder for the Dominican Summer League Giants affiliate. He hit .344/.459/.399 in 230 plate appearances as a 20-year-old. He’s a tad old, but in two seasons in the DSL he had walk rates of 10.5% and 13.9%. He barely strikes out, and while he doesn’t hit for much power, he could definitely be a useful player in the majors. At 5’ 11”, 155 lbs., he also has a lot of room to fill out. He’s on the top of my sleepers list.

17. Cristian Paulino, 2B (last year: NR)

Paulino got the call-up to the Arizona Rookie League this year, and performed very well: .277/.379/.435 in 135 plate appearances, 16 walks against 17 strikeouts and 10 steals to only 1 CS. He’s only 19 years old, so he’s a tad young for the league, and he’s a pretty exciting prospect to keep an eye on. We’ll see if he gets the promotion to Salem-Keizer next year, but a 122 wRC+ seems to indicate that he’s ready.

16. Jesus Galindo, CF (last year: NR)

After two years in the DSL, Galindo got an aggressive promotion all the way to low-A Salem Keizer this year. As a 20-year-old, he performed admirably: .276/.353/.364, good for a 122 wRC+. A pretty severe drop in walk rate between 2010 and 2011 is slight cause for concern, and Galindo will be a guy to keep an eye on in full-season ball next year.

15. Brett Krill, RF (last year: NR)

Krill, drafted in the 25th round in 2010, played his first professional season in 2011, and the results were impressive: 125 wRC+, a triple slash line of .304/.350/.488, a .184 ISO. But there’s bad news too: he’s already 22, and his K/BB ratio was 44/14. He should get the promotion to full season ball next year, and we’ll see if this season was an age-related mirage, or if Krill’s the real deal.

14. Shawn Payne, OF (last year: NR)

Payne was drafted in the 35th round this year by the Giants, assigned to low-A Salem Keizer, and promptly hit .306/.431/.394 in 195 plate appearances, good for a 147 wRC+. Payne’s a deep sleeper in this system, and the hesitation is warranted: he’s already 21, and he’s showing very little power. But Payne could be a something like Emilio Bonifacio: good plate discipline, little power, decent defense. He’s a guy to watch next year, presumably in single-A Augusta.

13. Chuckie Jones, OF (last year: 4)

After an exciting debut season last year (132 wRC+ as a 17-year-old), Jones struggled mightily in his second professional season. At low-A Salem-Keizer he hit .218/.322/.315 in 146 plate appearances, good for a 84 wRC+. His walk rate stayed constant at 10%, but his strikeout rate to, at a frightening 32%. What scares me the most, however, was his drop in power, from a .182 ISO in 2010 to .097 this year. He may see a promotion to single-A Augusta next season, but I predict we’ll see him back in low-A. Jones has gone from top-flight prospect to interesting sleeper, so we’ll see how he does next year to turn it around.

12. Kelby Tomlinson, SS (last year: NR)

Tomlinson was the Giants’ 12th round pick this year out of Texas A&M. He was drafted as a good defensive shortstop with work to do with his bat, but he surprised everyone by hitting .357/.415/.543 in rookie ball. He was old for the league (age 21, he’s actually seven days younger than I am) but this result certainly was encouraging. He’ll hopefully move up to full season ball next year as the starter in Augusta, but we may see him in extended spring training before starting for Salem-Keizer instead.

11. Ricky Oropesa, 1B (last year: NR)

Oropesa was the Giants’ third round pick this year, and has yet to play a professional game. Oropesa is a one-tool prospect with out-of-this-world power. He slugged .710 in his final year in college, but also struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances. He profiles similarly to Chris Dominguez (who didn’t make this list). As a college draftee, I hope to see him in full-season ball to start the year next year.

10. Conor Gillaspie, 3B (last year: 9)

Gillaspie spent the season with Fresno, earning two separate call-ups to the big league club. He hit .297/.389/.453 (109 wRC+) in Fresno and .263/.333/.421 in 21 plate appearances with the Giants. He had basically the same season as media darling Brett Pill, except he walked a lot more, plays a more important defensive position, and is two years younger. I expect to see him as a bench guy next year.

9. Jarrett Parker, RF (last year: 14)

As a 22-year-old in high-A, he hit .253/.360/.397 in 571 plate appearances (102 wRC+). He walked 74 times, which is great, but he also struck out 144 times, which is not so great. Parker would be a very exciting prospect if only he hit for more power. As of right now, he looks like nothing better than a 4th or 5th outfielder in the Fred Lewis mold. A year in the challenging hitting environment of Richmond will do a lot to tell us what to expect.

8. Adam Duvall, 3B (last year: NR)

Duvall hit .258/.358/.527 in single-A Augusta (145 wRC+). He’s a bit old for single-A ball (age: 22) but he really raked this year, and I’m disappointed the Giants chose not to promote him midseason. His 22 home runs tied him for second most in the system with Tommy Joseph (Brett Pill hit 25). Next year we’ll see him manning the hot corner for San Jose, and in the California League hitting environment he could definitely start turning some heads.

7. Andrew Susac, C (last year: NR)

Susac was the Giants’ second round pick in 2011. He didn’t play an inning of professional ball this year, but I hope to see him in Augusta to start off the season. He was a draft eligible sophomore, so he’s younger than most college draftees. He’s got the defensive abilities to stay behind the dish, and to me he profiles as a Russell Martin-type player: low average, plus power, good defense. A broken hamate bone in his left hand caused him to drop to the Giants at slot 86, before the injury he was viewed as a first round talent.

6. Ehire Adrianza, SS (last year: 8)

Now we’re getting into the truly exciting prospects in the system. As a 21-year-old, Adrianza split time this season between Augusta and San Jose. He hit better than most expected him to, putting up a combined line of .273/.352/.434 in 430 plate appearances. He began the season injured, and then was sent to Augusta, where he struggled a bit while shaking off effects of the injury. After getting promoted to San Jose on June 29th, he hit to the tune of a 119 wRC+, including a .165 ISO. Were those numbers a California League-induced mirage? We’ll see next season, when Adrianza trades the friendly confines of San Jose for the hits-depressing environment in Richmond. He’s still on track to reach San Francisco in 2013.

5. Hector Sanchez, C (last year: 15)

Sanchez is the one prospect I’m most confused about. He started the year as an interesting sleeper prospect in high-A, then got promoted bizarrely straight to triple-A, then served as an emergency backstop in case either Whiteside or Stewart got injured, got 12 days of big league service time before September, then spent all of September with the big league club. He ended the season with 34 plate appearances in San Francisco, 168 in Fresno, and 228 in San Jose. His stats in San Jose are pretty impressive: .302/.338/.533, good for a 114 wRC+. His stats in Fresno are less impressive: only a 58 wRC+ while hitting .261/.315/.340. He was only 21 this season, and will probably start next year in triple-A Fresno.

4. Francisco Peguero, RF (last year: 2)

Peguero battled a knee injury to start the season, and as such only managed to get 372 plate appearances on the season. He managed a 109 wRC+ in double-A Richmond despite a 1.7% walk rate – yes, you read that right. Unless he starts walking some more, he’s going to struggle in the majors. His performance will depend almost entirely on his BABIP, and those “slap it on the ground and run like hell” guys tend not to last at the big league level. He’ll begin next year at triple-A, and I expect to see him in at least a September call-up.

3. Joe Panik, 2B/SS (last year: NR)

Panik was the Giants’ first round pick out of St. Johns. He signed quickly and immediately started the season with low-A Salem-Keizer, where he silenced all doubters with a .341/.401/.467 line, hitting for average, taking walks, and even exhibiting a bit of power. His K/BB ratio was downright fantastic at 25/28. He played every game at SS in Salem-Keizer, but I have him listed as a 2B/SS because the Giants see him as a likely 2B in the future. He’s headed to Scottsdale to play in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll most likely begin next year as the starting SS in San Jose.

2. Tommy Joseph, C (last year: 4)

Joseph hit .270/.317/.471 in San Jose in his age-19 season. The K/BB ratio isn’t particularly encouraging at 102/29, but he did hit 22 home runs and sported a .201 ISO, which is fantastic. As I noted in my late May revisit, Joseph had a .594 OPS through 183 plate appearances, and he really came on strong in the second half, posting a .921 OPS after the All-Star break. His strong second half, plus his young age, make him the second best hitting prospect in the system. The minor league evaluators at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America (you know, the professionals) both like Joseph as a sleeper top-100 candidate and a candidate for a national breakout next season. He should handle Richmond’s hitting environment just fine. His fielding had been a concern going into the season, but he appears to have what it takes to stay behind the dish, throwing out 37% of base runners this season.

1. Gary Brown, CF (last year: 5)

Gary Brown simply lit the Cal League on fire this year. The starting center fielder since Opening Day, he proceeded to hit .336/.407/.519, which comes out to a 140 wRC+. In addition, he stole 53 bases, played a great center field, and even drew 46 walks. His plate discipline was one of the question marks about him entering the season, and he proved doubters wrong with a K/BB ratio of 73/46, which is perfectly acceptable. He hit 34 doubles and 13 triples, and therefore hopefully won’t be hurt by the hitting environment in Richmond too much, which tends to seriously depress home runs. He will likely slot somewhere between 30 and 50 on the Baseball America top 100 list. Quite simply, he was stunning in his debut season, and all systems are go for him to be roaming the San Francisco outfield by 2013.

As a system, the Giants have a couple of top-flight positional prospects and a few interesting sleepers. This is not an elite system, by any means, but it is still in the rebuilding phase after the graduations of some elite talent in recent years. I would say it would slot somewhere between 15-20 amongst all franchises.

Them’s the hitters, pitchers to come Monday.

2011 Draft: Prospect Profiles on the New Giants

Ah, the draft. For a prospect hound like me, it’s like Christmas in June. The future of baseball, getting distributed to teams in front of your very eyes. The Giants’ run to the World Series Championship last year was fueled largely by players selected in the Rule 4 draft in the last half decade or so. Just look:

First round, 2002: Matt Cain
24th round, 2003: Brian Wilson
27th round, 2004: Jonathan Sanchez
25th round, 2005: Sergio Romo
First round, 2006: Tim Lincecum
First round, 2007: Madison Bumgarner
First round, 2008: Buster Posey

That’s seven drafts in a row that the Giants picked someone who was a major contributor to their World Series Championship.

So the draft is important, no doubt. How did the Giants do this year? Let’s dive right in, shall we?

First Round, Pick 29: Joe Panik, SS/2B, St. Johns

Yes, there were plenty of puns to be made when the Giants drafted Panik about, oh, twenty or so slots above where he was projected to go. I, for one, definitely Paniked (alright, alright, I’m done, I promise) when I heard Bud Selig announce the pick, but I’ve come around on the selection. Panik is listed at 6’1”, 193 lbs., and is built pretty solidly. His range is adequate for short, but his arm will likely necessitate a move to second in the future. He should be a fast mover as he’s a very polished college player. At the plate, he’s got a nice, fluid swing. He won’t produce a lot of power, but his contact skills are second to none. This season, he walked more than twice as often as he struck out (38-17). His top comp in the majors is probably Freddy Sanchez, although if you squint really hard you can see a little Dustin Pedroia (size difference nonwithstanding). It’s worth noting he struggled in the wood-bat Cape Cod League last summer. I expect Panik to sign quite soon, and start at either shortstop or second base for the Low-A Salem-Keizer team. On my prospect list, I would put him at 9th, behind Ehire Adrianza and ahead of Charlie Culberson.

College Stats

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First Round, Supplemental, Pick 49: Kyle Crick, RHP, Texas HS

Going into the draft, I didn’t know a whole lot about Crick, but the more I see him the more I love him. He reminds me a lot of Matt Cain: they’re of similar size (Crick is 6’4”, 220, Cain is 6’3”, 230) and he’s got a low-90s fastball similar to Cain. He’s also boasts a hammer curveball that grades out as a plus pitch. He also apparently throws an average changeup and a fringe-average slider. His big issue is command; he walked 44 batters in 63 innings his senior year. Still, his stuff is impressive. He’ll be a bit of a project, but I look forward to seeing how he develops. He becomes the Giants’ third most exciting pitching prospect, after Zach Wheeler and Eric Surkamp.

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Second Round, Pick 86: Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State

I actually played high school ball against Susac, and I can tell you from firsthand experience he has the defensive skills to stay behind the dish. A broken hamate bone in his left hand held him to only 96 plate appearances this year, so opinions are mixed about his hitting ability. Some see him as a 10-15 HR a year, low contact, plus power kind of hitter, in the mold of Russell Martin or a Chris Iannetta, others think he’ll be a defense first catcher that will struggle to start in the big leagues. I sit more in the second camp, but Susac is intriguing enough to take the chance on. He fell perhaps as many as forty slots as teams were scared off by his hand injury. He becomes the Giants’ third best catching prospect, behind Tommy Joseph and Hector Sanchez. There are also some concerns that he might not sign, as he’s a draft-eligible sophomore, but I doubt the Giants would have picked him if they didn’t want to make a run at signing him.

College Stats

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Third Round, pick 116: Ricky Oropesa, 1B, USC

Ricky Oropesa is a one-tool player, but oh my, what that one tool is: power. In the third, the Giants grabbed a guy with truly elite power potential, and I can’t fault them for that, but I don’t see Oropesa becoming an everyday player in the big leagues. He had contact issues in college, striking out in over 20% of his at-bats his junior season. He also slugged .710, so I can live with the strikeouts, but I just don’t know if I see the power translating to wood bats. I heard a comparison to Chris Dominguez, and I think that’s probably pretty accurate. He also struggled in the Cape Cod League last summer with wood bats. He’d slot somewhere between 17 and 21 on my prospects list.

College Stats

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Other draftees I found interesting/noteworthy:


Fourth Round, pick 147: Bryce Bandilla, LHP, Arizona

I’ve played baseball with Bryce (can’t bring myself to call him by his last name) since we were 8 years old. The thing I remember most about him is him giving up one earned run in 55 innings his senior year, and striking out 78 batters while walking 7. Three years later, he started the season as Arizona’s closer but lost the job early in the season. He’s got an electric fastball that sits mid-90s and can touch 97, and he compliments that with an above-average curveball. He’s got a profile that suggests he can handle more than being a LOOGY. He has a history of starting, as well. Control is a major question mark; he walked more than 6 per nine this season. He’ll be a project for Tidrow. His motion isn’t going to settle any fears either, as it’s quite violent.

College Stats

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Sixth Round, pick 207: Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State

So we grabbed the Oregon State ace and his backstop. Osich fell this far due to health concerns; he reported left his last start after only 12 pitches after feeling some arm pain, and he sat out last season with Tommy John surgery. I love this pick, and I think it’s potentially fantastic value in a mid-round pick. He’s a senior, so signability isn’t an issue. He’s got a live fastball that can touch 97 and an average to above-average changeup. He’s also got a slider that is a work in progress. Similar to Bandilla, he profiles as a reliever even though he has a history of starting in college (he threw a no-hitter against UCLA this year).

College Stats

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Eighth Round, pick 267: Jean Delgado, SS, Puerto Rico HS

Finally, a hit-first SS prospect! Delgado was ranked the 5th best Puerto Rican prospect before the draft by Baseball America, and the best hitter. He’s 5’11”, 150 lbs., so he’s got room to fill out. Every report I’ve read indicates that he should be able to stick at SS, but he’s not going to be a Gold Glover. He was the highest drafted of the four Puerto Ricans taken by the Giants (one other, Christian Otero, was ranked as the best fielding prospect by BA).

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General impressions on the draft:

Taken as a whole, the front office had a decent draft. The top three of Panik, Crick, and Susac are solid, even if they were drafted in the wrong order. However, there were opportunities for greater returns on that pick. Mikey Mahtook, the outfielder from LSU, was still available, as was HS pitcher Henry Owens. Even if the Giants brass were committed to taking a middle infielder, Levi Michael, Trevor Story, and Jake Hager were all still on the board, and all three were widely considered better prospects than Panik.

What I think happened was all the high-upside pitchers the Giants really wanted came off the board right before pick 29. Tyler Beede went at 21, Taylor Guerreri went 24th, Joe Ross went 25th, and Robert Stephenson went 27th. The draft room panicked (avoiding the pun) and went for need.

That being said, they’re the professionals, and I’m just some kid who should be studying for his finals. They managed to grab a 1st round talent in the 2nd, and in between took a projectable high school pitcher, the type of player they’ve been successful developing in the past. It became apparent after the draft that the Giants probably weren’t drafting with as deep of pockets as we outsiders may have thought they were. Crick and Susac are probably the only two picks that will require anything above slot to sign, and I don’t think they’ll want that much more. All told, this draft will probably cost the Giants $4-5 million, which is quite low. All in all, I thought they had a solid draft.

Now it’s time to get these kids on the field.